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000
FXUS63 KOAX 260537
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  through the weekend.

- Marginal risk of severe weather tonight especially across
  eastern Nebraska.

- Severe weather appears likely (>80% chance) during the
  afternoon and evening hours on both Friday, Saturday, and
  perhaps Sunday.

- Flash flooding is also a concern due to the potential for
  repeated thunderstorm activity over the same areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

We had a pretty decent area of widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms move through the region this morning through early
afternoon, which did produce some 1-1.5" inch rains in southeast
NE. That precipitation has largely ended, save for spotty
showers from Omaha southward. We are starting to see the
lowering cloud bases from Norfolk to Lincoln, and this trend
will continue through the night. We`ll also see the next round
of showers/thunderstorms which are already starting to develop
across the front range of the Rockies, and as the low level jet
strengthens tonight, we should see showers redevelop in our
area, with the threat for more thunderstorms possible by 10 pm
and beyond. There will be a threat for stronger and possibly
severe storms through about 3 am, and especially across eastern
NE, but there will still be a threat of storms through daybreak.

Friday is setting up to be the more severe day with much of the
forecast area in an enhanced risk of severe storms during the
afternoon and evening, generally 2pm-9pm, with all modes of
severe storms possible. This will be the result of a strong
closed upper low moving off the Rockies, with the attendant
surface low tucked closed to the southeast. Friday morning may
not feel like a severe weather day with low clouds and
showers/drizzle, but we`ll begin to see breaks in the clouds
which will help fuel the storms in the afternoon. Smaller, short
lived, low top supercell tornadoes could be possible in
northeast NE, but given atmospheric shear, stronger, longer
lived discrete supercells will be possible in a line that
develops through southeast NE, then moves into western Iowa. SPC
has placed the Missouri River valley in a 10% probability for
tornadoes, which is quite high, but also have highlighted the
potential for significant tornadoes which could be EF2 or
higher. Along with the tornado potential, very large hail of 2"
or greater could occur with the supercells. Depending of the
speed of various CAMs, the threat appears to wind down around
7-9 pm depending on location. Bottom line, there is the
potential for very strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. Be ready to implement severe weather plans.

Once the rain shuts down Friday evening, the remainder of the
night Friday night into Saturday morning looks quiet, especially
for those participating in outdoor activities Saturday morning.
However, a renewed severe weather threat develops Saturday
afternoon by 4pm and beyond, as an attendant frontal boundary
from the first system is reinvigorated by the next close trough
and attendant surface low moving out of the Rockies. This
allows widespread showers/storms to redevelop across the region
Saturday night, with the next round of severe storms possible
along/south of Interstate 80, when again, all modes of severe
storms would be possible, including another round of supercells
with potential tornadoes and very large hail. Given the multiple
rounds of storms Saturday night, we`ll have to be very
cognizant of flooding potential with some small risk for flash
flooding.

Storm chances continue into Sunday as the second closed upper
low/attendant surface low move through the region. While the
bigger, stronger storms appear to be setting up east of the
forecast area, we`ll have to be wary of the low topped
supercells which could still have a tornado threat given the
proximity to more largescale atmospheric spin.

And finally, more quite weather is expected for most of next
week, although there additional shower/storm chances Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Our first round of thunderstorms continues to move through
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight. Expect periods of
reduced visibilities, down to 1 mile in the strongest storms.
Ceilings will dip to IFR at all three sites tonight and into
early Friday morning before lifting to MVFR around 18Z. Our next
round of storms will arrive between 20-23Z Friday afternoon.
While a few of these storms are expected to be severe, the exact
timing and location remains questionable at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...KG