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000
FXUS65 KABQ 140518 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1118 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry, seasonably warm, and breezy conditions will prevail this
weekend across the area. Gusty southwest to west winds develop on
Monday, creating dangerous critical fire weather conditions in
central and eastern NM below snowpack. Winds remain strong into
Tuesday, then decrease late in the week as temperatures soar to the
highest values of the season thus far west of the central mountain
chain. Below average temperatures, increased clouds, and a few
showers are favored in eastern NM late week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Ridge axis is forecast to push east of NM tonight with southwest
flow aloft moving overhead late tonight into Sunday morning.  The
increasing southwest flow aloft is in response to a closed low
moving ashore over central CA Sunday morning. Sunday looks a good
deal like today with high temperatures and mainly sunny skies.
Main change will be a slight increase in southwest breezes/winds
for western NM Sunday afternoon. Main model trend from this
morning`s model suite was to bring in the upper low`s wind field
slightly faster and farther south than previous runs. Winds are
not looking as strong for central and northern NM Monday
afternoon, but still plenty strong south of I-40 and especially
for the south central mountains and Ruidoso area Sunday night
through Monday. Winds aloft ramp up after midnight Sunday night
with strong southwest winds kicking in for the south central
mountains several hours prior to sunrise Monday, continuing
through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An upper-low will move across Utah on Monday, sending a cyclonically
curved jet streak through New Mexico. 500-700mb mean winds will be
greatest in the far southern portion of the CWA where deep mixing to
13kft will surely bring strong to damaging gusts down to the
surface. These winds combined with several hours of sub-10% humidity
will create widespread dangerous critical fire weather conditions in
central and eastern NM (see fire wx discussion). Despite beneficial
rainfall last week, blowing dust can be expected once again to east
of dust sources, with the greatest coverage in Chaves county. A
mostly dry Pacific cold front will sweep across the state from west
to east on Tuesday as well, with the strongest gusts of the day
likely occurring along the front`s leading edge. There are still
some model differences with frontal passage timing, but that will
likely become more clear in the coming days. In northern NM, forcing
could be just strong enough to generate a few showers near the CO
border. LIs decrease to around -1C in the wake of the cold front so
a few storms cannot be ruled out as well. Dry low levels will also
support localized gusty winds near showers and storms. Gusty virga
showers may extend into central and southwestern NM as well, but
will struggle make it into eastern NM. A lee-side low in the TX
Panhandle will allow windy conditions to continue into Tuesday,
particularly in the typical windy areas along and just east of the
central mountain chain.

Winds finally decrease Wednesday, but a very weak wave should help a
brisk breeze persist through the day. Temperatures will be on the
uptrend mid-week as heights rise. Temperatures could be pushing 80F
across the northeast with mid-80s along the middle and lower RGV.
Cluster analysis shows that there is a high likelihood (>80%) that a
powerful trough will develop over the High Plains/Great Lakes area
mid to late week. This could send a backdoor cold front into eastern
NM as early as Wednesday night. While widespread precipitation
appears unlikely, an increase in cloud coverage and cooler
temperatures are favored east of the central mountain chain. The
higher moisture should be able to mitigate fire weather concerns as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR with skc and light and vrb winds prevail overnight and Sunday
morning. Southerly to southwesterly winds increase late morning
Sunday with afternoon gusts reaching 25 to 30kts at more exposed
terminals, with 15 to 25kts at more protected valley terminals .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY CENTRAL AND
EAST...

Southwest winds increase somewhat Sunday, particularly for the
western third of the state. Spotty elevated to near critical
condtions are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon but winds remain
below to well below critical thresholds. This changes on Monday as a
low over California continues to approach NM from the northwest.
Widespread critical conditons are forecast for the middle Rio Grande
and eastern plains zones Monday afternoon where the Fire Weather
Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Winds decrease most
areas Tuesday but enough locally strong winds continue that spotty
critical areas set up once again, mainly south of I-40 and east
of I-25. Winds continue to trend down Wednesday, remain light to
moderate through the remainder of the work week. A strong backdoor
cold front remains in the forecast for next weekend, bringing a
cooler, much higher dewpoint airmass and chances for showers and
thunderstorms to eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  74  39  61 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  31  71  31  60 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  37  70  36  58 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  31  72  32  57 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  34  69  32  54 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  32  74  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  33  71  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  42  74  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  37  70  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  32  73  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  42  77  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  32  66  31  54 /   0   0   0  20
Los Alamos......................  43  70  43  60 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  41  70  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  65  44  56 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  31  63  32  49 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  26  65  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  33  72  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  37  72  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  39  77  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  43  71  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  40  73  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  76  50  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  47  78  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  79  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  40  81  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  45  78  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  40  80  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  45  79  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  41  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  46  74  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  46  78  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  46  83  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  68  44  61 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  42  71  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  39  73  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  74  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  38  71  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  41  72  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  72  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  48  75  52  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  46  69  49  63 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  41  75  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  37  77  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  36  78  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  38  74  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  49  81  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  42  78  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  43  85  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  44  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  46  83  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  48  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  47  84  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  46  85  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  51  90  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  83  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  47  82  52  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-106-
123>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for NMZ104-125-126.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
NMZ226-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24