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000
FXAK69 PAFG 161445
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
645 AM AKDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm over the Bering Strait will move to north of Utqiagvik
this afternoon. A weather front that lies from this low south to
the Yukon Delta will remain along the West Coast of Alaska into
Thu. Very stormy conditions along the West Coast with this storm
will weaken along the West Coast today as the low moves north but
spread strong winds and stormy conditions to the Central Brooks
Range.

Snow will redevelop along the weather front over the West Coast
tonight and continue into Wed. It is expected that snow to become
mixed with rain Wednesday afternoon, but it is possible that snow
will continue along the West Coast into Thu.

Strong south winds through Alaska Range Passes will weaken some
this afternoon and tonight, but become strong again on Wed and
Thu.

The Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope will be dry today
through the end of the week, with dry conditions spreading to the
West Coast Fri.

Temperatures today will be just slightly warmer than Mon, then
Wed will see warming to above normal over the Eastern Interior,
and all areas will warm well above normal Thu and Fri with warm
temps lasting into the weekend.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of N amplified long wave trough
over the Bering and Central Pacific with several strong short
waves dropping from Russia south into the trough, and the ridge
building north over Alaska. The pattern progresses on Wed as the
trough moves over the Eastern Bering and the ridge builds over the
ALCAN border area. This pattern become negatively tilted through
the end of the week with the ridge building NW over Northern AK
and the trough deepening over the Gulf of AK. This will cause
southerly flow that will remain southerly Wed, then become
southeast Thu and Fri and possibly into the weekend. What this all
means is that we will see stormy conditions over the West Coast,
Western Interior, Central Brooks Range and Western North Slope
today today into Wed, while the Eastern Interior and Eastern
North Slope remain mainly dry. Most areas will see drying
conditions Thu and Fri.


.SYNOPSIS...
A 1003 mb low 400 NM N of Barter Island will move northeast.

A 996 mb low in the Bering Strait will move to 60 NM north of
Utqiagvik as a 1006 mb low by 4pm Tue, and to 500 NM northeast of
Barter Island as a 1012 mb low by 4am Wed. A weather front that
lies from this low south to the Yukon Delta will remain along the
West Coast of Alaska into Thu.

A 1002 mb low near Provideniya will move to near Gambell as a
1013 mb low by 4am Wed, and then remain stationary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 4pm Wed. Fro Wed night and Thu the NAM
becomes an outlier weakening the low aloft in the Northern Bering
Sea and moving it south more quickly than other models. As a
result will use a blend of the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian Models for
features aloft through 4pm Thu.

At 850 mb temperatures range from 0C along the ALCAN Border to -8C
along the West Coast. The 0C isotherm expands west over the
Eastern Interior on Wed, and then over most of the Interior and
the Eastern North Slope on Thu, and to the West Coast on Fri.
What this means is that temperatures today will be just slightly
warmer than Mon, then Wed will see warming to above normal over
the Eastern Interior, and all areas will warm well above normal Thu
and Fri with warm temps lasting into the weekend.

With precipitation, models show similar patterns but differ on
details. Will use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF for precip. Snow
amounts will be tricky as most areas will change to mixed rain and
snow sometime on Wed. Highlights include:
Snow along the West Coast will diminish from Nome west this
morning and move east over the Western Interior, and Brooks Range
west of the Atigun Pass and Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik west
today with mixed rain and snow over the Western Interior and
Eastern Norton Sound. Snow will spread back west over the West
Coast tonight and continue into Wed, but changing to mixed rain
and snow most areas by Wed afternoon. Mixed Rain and snow will
continue Wed night and Thu over the West Coast and SW Interior.
Expect additional 6-8 inches of snow through Wed over Southern
Seward Pen, and over the NW AK north of Kotzebue, with 4-6 inches
over the YK Delta and lower Yukon River.

At the surface at 06Z, models all verify 4 mb too weak on the low
over St Lawrence Is, but verify well most other features. Models
show similar surface patterns through 4pm Wed, then the NAM
becomes an outlier. Will use a blend of the Canadian and GFS for
surface features and winds. Highlights include:
Southerly gales eastern Norton Sound and Kotzebue Sound decreasing
today and spreading to the Central Brooks Range with south 25 kt
spreading to the Central Arctic Coast today. South winds gusting
50 mph through AK Range Passes through Thu. North winds 25 kt
developing over the Chukchi Sea today spreading south to St
Lawrence Is and the YK Delta on Wed.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Sea levels 3-4 ft above normal today from the Bering Strait south
falling over the next several days. This may have pushed water on
top of the ice south of the Bering Strait today.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809-812.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ814.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815-817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ819.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-810-852-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-851-854-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

JB