913
FXUS61 KALY 090311
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1111 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front tracking through the region tonight will result in
cooler weather tomorrow through the weekend. Chances for
showers increase tomorrow afternoon and night through the
weekend. It looks like we trend back towards drier and slightly
warmer conditions for the beginning of next week before chances
for showers increase again by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 11 PM EDT...Our dew point boundary has already exited the
region leaving us with much lower dew points that are now in the
40s to low 50s with the true cold front now pushing through the
southern Adirondacks. Northerly winds also remain a bit breezy
sustained around 5-10kts as the sfc pressure gradients tight. A
few showers have developed along the boundary as it pushes
south and eastward but these showers will diminish further as
they exit the terrain given plenty of mid- level dry. While
skies south of I-90 have cleared out, expecting clouds to
redevelop after Midnight as winds gradually weaken and low-
level moisture collects beneath the subsidence inversion. Given
additional clouds expected overnight plus ongoing slightly
breezy northerly winds, not expecting fog overnight. Forecast
remains on track.

Previous discussion...Tonight, the upper shortwave and
associated surface low track from upstate NY off the New England
coast. The system`s cold front will track through the region
tonight, making it to around the I-84 corridor by 12z. Any areas
ahead of the cold front could see some patchy fog tonight,
especially for any areas that receive a shower/storm this
afternoon. North and west of the cold front, advection of drier
and cooler air should prevent much fog. Lows will range from the
40s for the high terrain to mid/upper 50s near the I-84
corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow starts off relatively cool, especially across the
northern portions of our forecast area. It will also be dry to
start the day with a ridge of high pressure at the surface
beneath confluent flow aloft extending over our region. However,
a positively tilted upper trough with several embedded shortwave
disturbances rotating around it dips into the Great Lakes
region. The surface cold front continues its track southwards,
and an area of low pressure tracks eastwards from the Ohio
valley along the low-level thermal gradient beneath the left
exit region of the upper jet. This will bring increasing shower
chances in the afternoon and especially overnight, mainly for
areas along and south of I-90. Precipitation does not look as
widespread as it did at this time yesterday, especially tomorrow
afternoon. If current forecast trends continue, PoPs may have to
be trimmed back even more tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the
50s to 60s for highs tomorrow, and drop into the 40s tomorrow
night. A few wet snowflakes could mix in across the southern
Greens late tomorrow night, but little to no accumulation is
expected.

Friday and Friday night...Forecast confidence remains lower than
we would like for this timeframe. The upper trough takes on a
neutral to even negative tilt, and the surface low tracks to our
south off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the same time, an inverted
trough will extend back north and west into central NY. We will
likely see showers or a period of steady rain for areas near the
inverted trough, but exactly how far north and east this feature
and the associated precip makes it remains somewhat uncertain at
this time. The best chance for rain therefore appears to be from
Albany south and west. Here, likely to categorical PoPs were put
in the forecast, with chance PoPs further north and east.
Precipitation chances diminish Friday night as the surface low
moves off to the east, but will keep slight chance to chance
PoPs around with the upper trough axis moving overhead. Friday
will be quite cool, with highs the 40s for many high terrain
areas with 50s for the lower elevations. Friday night lows will
generally be in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the high terrain
areas. A couple wet snow flakes could mix in across the highest
peaks of the ADKs, southern Greens, and Catskills with any
lingering light showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Saturday with another upper shortwave
approaching from the west. This shortwave will close off aloft at it
moves over our area, which will slow the forward progress of the
large-scale trough causing it to remain overhead through most of the
weekend. The surface low associated with the upper shortwave weakens
as it moves into our area before redeveloping well or our east over
the Atlantic. With the surface low and upper trough nearby all
weekend, temperatures will likely be on the cool side, mainly in the
50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys). It will be mainly cloudy with
chances for showers each day, although we will see scattered showers
as opposed to an all-day rain.

We may dry out Sunday night into Monday as upper confluence and a
ridge of high pressure briefly build over the region, although an
upper shortwave and associated cold front may bring additional
chances for showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday for the norther
half of our forecast area. The track of this feature is far from set
in stone, so at this time till mention chance PoPs north of I-90 and
work to refine the timing/location of any precip over the next few
days. Forecast confidence decreases for the Tuesday into Wednesday
timeframe, as another storm system will be developing upstream and
may eventually track into our region towards the end of the long
term period. Will mention chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday. Monday through Wednesday will be warmer, with more sun
than over the weekend and a southerly component of the flow helping
to advect warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front tracking through the terminals this evening has
resulted in a brief period of strong northwest winds sustained
up to 15-20kts and gusts up to 30-35kts with a few scattered
showers mainly at GFL, ALB and ALB. Showers quickly diminish and
winds weaken by 00 - 02 UTC in the wake of the boundary. Cold
air advection continues the rest of tonight with ceilings
gradually lowering and likely resulting in MVFR cigs at all
terminals. GFL and PSF should see MVFR cigs first beginning at
03 - 06 UTC with ALB and POU following closer to sunrise by 09 -
12 UTC. Low-level moisture looks to remain pooled beneath the
subsidence inversion through 15 UTC or so before winds shift to
the north-northeast and high pressure builds into northern New
England allowing for VFR conditions to resume.

Clouds lower late in the TAF period mainly at POU and PSF as a
warm front lifts from the mid-Atlantic northward but should only
drop to low-end VFR. Additional showers also spread northward
but mainly look to remain around POU with the rest of the
terminals remaining dry through 00 UTC.

Breezy northwesterly winds this evening sustained 5 - 15kts and
gusts up to 20-30kts associated with the arrival of a cold
front will weaken by 02 - 03 UTC. Northwesterly winds shift to
the north-northwest overnight and remain sustained around
5-7kts. Northerly or north-northeasterly winds continue through
the end of the TAF period and remain sustained around 5-8kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Speciale