538
FXUS61 KALY 051103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
703 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As a storm system approaches from the west, rain will continue
to overspread the area into this morning. The rain will persist
through the day today, with much cooler temperatures. Clouds
will break for some sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures
returning to the region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on
Tuesday before the threat for showers returns Wednesday into the
latter portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...Made some minor changes based on current obs and radar
trends. Steadiest rainfall occurring mainly from around Albany
north at this time. Where there are breaks south/east, rain
should fill back in later this morning. Temperatures are in the
40s to start the day and will not rise much due to the
extensive clouds and rain.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0337]...Rain continues to overspread the
region from SW to NE into early this morning. Today will be
cool, raw and damp. Widespread rain will persist across the
entire area, with decent isentropic lift occurring well ahead of
a frontal system tracking east from the central to lower Great
Lakes. Fairly substantial S-SW flow(850 mb v- component wind
anomalies of +1 to +3 STDEV) will continue to result in abundant
moisture, with PWAT anomalies to +1 to +2 STDEV. A short wave
trough aloft providing additional lift will also be moving
eastward across the region ahead of the surface front. With
plenty of clouds/rain around and a persistent surface S-SE wind,
highs will only reach the lower/mid 50s in lower elevations
with 40s in the mountains.

Steady rain will become more showery this evening, as the short
wave aloft moves through with the surface front still lagging
back to our west. Will continue to mention likely/categorical
PoPs through the evening. The short wave tracks east into New
England overnight, while the surface front approaches from
central NY. So scattered showers could linger through the
overnight hours. Total rainfall expected to be around 0.50-1.25"
with the greatest amounts in the Mohawk Valley and SW
Adirondacks where the S-SW low level jet intersects the higher
terrain. The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns
given dry conditions over the past several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The flow will shift to a more W-NW direction as zonal flow
aloft sets up on Mon. However, the slow-moving front will still
be tracking E-SE across the area during the morning to early
afternoon hours. So while there will be a drying trend through
the day, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible
along the front as it passes through. PWATs lower considerably
late in the day, as surface high pressure starts to build east
from the Great Lakes. Breaks of sunshine should occur during the
afternoon. With good mixing developing and mild temperatures
aloft, highs should reach the mid/upper 60s in the mountains to
lower/mid 70s in the valleys.

High pressure builds east into our region Mon night into Tue,
providing dry/tranquil conditions. With clearing skies Mon
night, lows look to be mainly in the 40s. Dry, sunny and warm
weather expected on Tue with high pressure remaining in place.
With a light NW breeze and dry low levels, highs could reach the
mid/upper 70s in most lower elevation locations.

After a dry evening, chances for showers will start to increase
overnight as a warm front associated with an eastward advancing
cyclone over the central Great Lakes quickly approaches. Will
continue mention of chance PoPs for now due to some timing
differences among the guidance. Lows will be a bit milder with
the increasing clouds, ranging from mid/upper 40s north of
Albany to mid 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled conditions through the long term period, as upper
level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/upper midwest,
and gradually builds eastward. Mid/upper level disturbances
ahead of the developing trough will bring several rounds of
showers and/or steady rainfall to the region during the period.

Initial disturbance tracks across the region Wednesday. Long-
term guidance suggests some respectable instability/mid level
lapse rates track across the region with this disturbance,
especially areas south of I-90. Depending on the exact track and
timing of this system, there could be strong thunderstorms,
especially areas south of I-90. Second disturbance tracks just
south of the region Thursday-Thursday night, bringing another
round of showers or steady rain. Yet another disturbance may
bring showers or steady rain for a portion of Saturday.

Temperatures will trend below normal during the period,
although initially may be above normal Wednesday with highs in
the 70s for some valley areas south/east of Albany. Otherwise,
highs mainly in the 50s and 60s, perhaps even cooler should
widespread steady rainfall occur. Lows in the 40s, with some 30s
possible across higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...A frontal system approaching from the west
will bring occasional rain to the TAF sites through most of
today. Rain tapers off this evening, with patchy drizzle and
isolated showers lingering through Monday morning.

Periods of light to moderate rain will affect the TAF sites
through today, with mainly MVFR to occasional IFR Cigs. Vsbys
will be mainly VFR/MVFR, however will drop to IFR within areas
of moderate rain.

Steady rain should taper off from west to east between roughly
22Z/Sun-03Z/Mon. Some lingering showers/drizzle and areas of fog
will be possible in the wake of the steady rain tonight through
early Monday morning, with MVFR/IFR Vsbys and IFR Cigs likely.

Winds will be mainly southeast to south at 8-12 KT through
today, with some gusts up to 20-25 KT, especially at KALB.
Winds will become south to southwest and decrease to 5-10 KT
later this evening.

Low level wind shear is possible at any TAF sites where winds
decrease to less than 10 KT this afternoon. At this time, it
appears winds at the TAF sites will remain above this level, so
no low level wind shear has been indicated at this time, however
trends will need to be watched for possible subsequent
inclusion.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL