Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

000
FGUS71 KALY 111821
ESFALY
CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-025-181830-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
221 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...Flood threat remains above normal for a portion of the Albany
service area...

Flood potential is above normal for southeastern portions of the
outlook area due to wet antecedent conditions combined with the
potential for near term rainfall. Flood potential is above normal
for southern Vermont due to near term snowmelt and rainfall. The
flood potential is considered near normal for the rest of the
service area. The threat for ice jams has ended for the season.

A map of the flood potential outlook can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

This map does not address the potential for ice jam flooding.

This is the eighth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by
the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from April 11th
through the 25th. If all remaining snow melts and no additional
snowpack materializes over the two week outlook period, this will
be the final outlook of the season.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Much of the snow depth and snow water equivalent present at the
last two week outlook issuance has melted. Snowpack in the highest
peaks of the Western Adirondacks shows a few isolated measurements
of 3 to 9 inches of depth with liquid equivalents of 1 to 3
inches; the rest of the Western Adirondacks are either snow free
or have so little snow as to be hydrologically insignificant. Snow
also remains in the highest peaks of Southern Vermont, with 2 to 8
inches of snowpack holding a modeled 1 to 3 inches of liquid
equivalent. Lower elevations in Southern Vermont are snow free or
have so little snow as to be hydrologically insignificant.
Elsewhere around the outlook area is snow free at this time.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New
York are running generally near normal, with a few locations in
the southern portion of the service area remaining above normal
for this time of year. Per USGS monitoring wells, groundwater
levels are generally near normal for much of the outlook area,
with a number of Mid-Hudson Valley locations showing above normal
levels. Palmer drought severity remains much wetter than normal
for the entire outlook area, generally “extremely moist”. New York
State Mesonet observations show soil temperatures well above
freezing, over 40 degrees F, at all depths.

...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

The threat for ice jams has ended for the season.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP)
water supply reservoir levels remain above normal for this time of
year. Total storage is currently at 99.4 percent of capacity, or
half a percent above normal capacity for this time of year.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels
continue to rise, however as this is generally the time of
reservoir fill, they are getting closer to normal for this time of
year. The Great Sacandaga Reservoir is over 12 feet above normal
for this time of year. Indian Lake is under 2 feet above normal
for this time of year. In the Black River watershed, Stillwater
Reservoir and First Lake are around a foot above normal, and Sixth
Lake is less than a foot above normal.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
outlooks (for April 16 to 20 and April 18-24, respectively) both
call for above normal temperatures and precipitation.

...SUMMARY...

Flood potential is above normal for southeastern portions of the
outlook area due to wet antecedent conditions combined with the
potential for near term rainfall. Flood potential is above normal
for southern Vermont due to near term snowmelt and rainfall. The
flood potential is considered near normal for the rest of the
service area. The threat for ice jams has ended for the season.


Extended hydrologic information will be included in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook when necessary at
forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to ten day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can produce
flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have below
normal snowpack and no river ice.

$$

bew