Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FNUS71 KALY 170853
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for APB KARNER BARRENS EAST RX...Albany Pine Bush
National Weather Service Albany NY
453 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
An approaching warm front will bring increasing clouds today,
with showers developing from southwest to northeast this
afternoon into tonight. Cool and unsettled conditions will
continue through Friday, with occasional showers. Improving
conditions arrive for the upcoming weekend, although
temperatures will remain a bit below normal.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Dewpoint............33 increasing to 36 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph early
                    in the morning, then shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph early in the afternoon becoming
                    light late in the afternoon becoming south
                    around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    5 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (17100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  16  18  28  37  47  53  59  65  72  80  87
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............39  40  42  45  50  53  57  60  62  63  64  62
Dewpoint........31  31  31  32  33  33  33  33  34  35  36  37
RH..............73  70  65  60  52  46  40  36  35  35  35  39
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  E   SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   5   6   6   5   5   3   3   3   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   7   7   8   8   7   6   5   5   5   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   6   7
LVORI...........3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   7   9   10  11  12  13  13  14  16  17  17
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening, then chance of
                    rain showers in the evening. Rain showers
                    likely late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Dewpoint............41 increasing to 45 early in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.16 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........90  92  95  96  96  97  95  94  92  92  93  93
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  30  40  50  50  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  60  56  54  53  52  50  49  48  48  47  47
Dewpoint........39  43  44  46  46  45  45  45  45  45  45  45
RH..............43  53  64  74  77  77  83  86  89  89  93  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   9   12  12  10  9   8   8   8   8   9   9
20 FT wind gust.9   14  16  16  15  13  12  12  12  12  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  12  14  15  15  15  15  14  14  14
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Haines index....4   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  9   6   9   13  16  15  13  11  9   8   9
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the morning and early afternoon, then chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........83 percent.
Dewpoint............42.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (37300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.14 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........93  93  93  94  96  97  96  94  93  92  90  89
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60  70  70  70  70  70  60  60  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............46  46  45  45  46  46  46  46  46  46  46  46
Dewpoint........44  44  44  43  43  43  43  43  42  42  41  41
RH..............93  93  96  93  89  89  89  89  86  86  83  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..8   8   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.12  10  9   9   9   9   10  12  12  10  8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.15  17  18  20  20  20  20  20  18  17  16  15
LVORI...........5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14  20  26  31  34  37  37  37  35  34  32  29
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...KL
Requested by...Tyler Briggs
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411183.0/ALY
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tbriggs@albanypinebush.org
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