Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261712
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1212 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Latest 0730Z obs shows an embedded vort max within the backside
of the departing H500 low has created a mesoscale band of snow
across portions of the SW TX Panhandle. CUrrent satellite analysis
shows a broad H500 trough over the Four Corners Region. This
aforementioned trough will move slowly from west to east across
the Panhandles later today. As it does so, anemic, but large scale
lift should bring a chance for rain showers later this afternoon
and evening from SW to NE across the Panhandles. POPs should not
exceed 30-35% as H850-700 theta-e advection is also quite weak.
Could see some snow showers mixed with rain showers across the
northern Panhandles as the main perturbation shifts northeast
later tonight and then exits the Panhandles. High today will range
from the upper 40s to upper 50s with lows tonight ranging from
the mid 20s to lower 30s. Some leftover rain/snow showers for the
eastern Panhandles tomorrow morning, with skies clearing out by
the second half of the day tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow
will range from the lower 50s to near 60 degrees with low
temperatures tomorrow night from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Spring to early summer vibes return to the area starting on Thu.
With the synoptic pattern holding a large scale ridge over much of
the Great Plains, afternoon temperatures warm to the lower and
mid 70s Thu. Fri through the weekend widespread afternoon
temperatures in the 80s are progged. With these warm temperatures
and dewpoints in the 20s to lower 30s RH values will dry into the
10 to 15 percent range each afternoon through the extended period,
especially for western and southern portions of the combined
Panhandles. Not one single day stands out for high winds but Thu
could possibly see southwest surface winds around 20 to 25 mph and
when combined with the low RH may lead to some elevated to
critical fire weather conditions mainly in the western Panhandles.
Fri through Sun winds may still be on the breezy side with some
elevated fire weather conditions possible. Will have to monitor
the state of the fuels toward the end of the week into the weekend
to determine the full fire weather potential.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the next 24
hours. There will be some showers moving through the western
panhandles this afternoon to early evening. These are not
expected to reduce conditions to below VFR and are unlikely to
actually impact any of the terminals. There is a remote chance for
an isolated thunderstorms but the odds of such an event as so low
as not to be carried in the forecast, just know it cannot be
ruled out fully. Winds are expected to be light through the rest
of today and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                31  55  31  73 /  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  23  51  27  71 /  10  20   0   0
Boise City OK              24  53  28  69 /  20  10   0   0
Borger TX                  33  57  32  76 /  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              31  58  30  75 /  20  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  30  57  28  73 /  30  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               32  54  31  72 /  30  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 27  55  26  71 /  20   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  24  54  27  72 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                30  59  30  74 /  30  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                28  52  28  71 /  20  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   31  53  31  73 /  30  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                31  53  29  70 /  30  20   0   0
Wellington TX              32  55  30  70 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98


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