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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ
begins near 03N20W and continues to 01N35W and to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 10W
and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge off NE Florida
and lower pressures in Mexico result in fresh to locally strong
easterly winds south of 25N and between 89W and 96W. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas
prevail. A few showers are evident in the nearshore waters of
Texas, while generally dry conditions are found in the remaining
waters of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a subtropical ridge located between Bermuda and
the Bahamas and lower pressures in Mexico will support fresh to
strong easterly winds pulsing off the NW Yucatan peninsula and
south-central Gulf during the next several nights. Otherwise,
moderate winds and seas will continue through most of the week. A
cold front may move into the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night, followed
by fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge centered north of the islands continues to
force fresh to locally strong NE-E winds in the lee of Cuba and
the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident in
the remainder of the central and NW Caribbean and also in the
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure and associated ridging will
prevail over the SW N Atlantic waters ENE of the Bahamas through
the forecast period and will support moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across the basin, except for the SW and NE Caribbean
where winds will be light to gentle. Fresh winds in the Windward
Passage are forecast to reach strong speeds during the evenings
today through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A prononced surface trough is analyzed along 61W, producing
scattered showers between 55W and 62W, between 20N and 25N. The
remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the
influence of a 1023 mb high pressure system located near 31N73W.
The subtropical ridge is forcing moderate to locally strong
easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft west of the trough to the Florida
Straits from 20N to 25N.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high
pressure system near 33N50W and lower pressures in the deep
tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of
20N. Wave heights in the area described are 7-10 ft, with the
highest seas near 11N49W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure and associated ridging
will prevail over the SW N Atlantic waters ENE of the Bahamas
through the forecast period. The pressure gradient between a
surface trough analyzed NE of the Leeward Islands and the ridge is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of the Bahamas, the
Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage. The
trough will move E of the area early on Thu and winds over this
region will diminish to moderate speeds. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also forecast over the aforementioned
region through tonight. Rough seas to 8 ft north of the Leeward
Islands will subside today. A cold front may move over the waters
off NE Florida late Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
could precede this front.

$$
Mora