539
FXUS64 KBMX 021744
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1244 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

Another warm day on tap across Central Alabama with plenty of
sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 80s in most places.
The combination of very warm temperatures and a weak surface
boundary that stretches from near Tupelo to Auburn could result in
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Fair this evening with no
rain expected. A short wave trough currently over Texas and
Oklahoma will track eastward today and tonight. Showers with
embedded storms will impact areas along and north of I-20 after
midnight. The rain cooled air mass will push southward on Friday
triggering numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms to areas
north of I-85. Any storms that develop are expected to remain
below severe limits today through Friday.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

We will continue to see a shortwave slide through the area Friday
night in Saturday. This along with the subtropical jet streak
nosing in, we should see scattered to numerous showers and storms
into Saturday morning. The highest chances will be in the north
where heights will be lower. Overall dynamics are weak with this
system so severe weather is not expected.

Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen ahead of a deep trough
moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there
will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with
elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating.
Ridging and associated warm air aloft increases further on Tuesday
as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should
result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more
common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow
strengthens for end of this period.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024

VFR conditions will persist areawide through tonight. Expect high
to mid level clouds to increase from the west from later this
afternoon through the overnight as a series of mid-level
disturbances gradually weaken as they approach the area from the
west. There will be enough forcing to support a small chance for
showers this afternoon, but chances are too low to include at any
terminal location. Winds will increase from the south and
southeast at 5-10 kts. Later tonight, shower chances will increase
from the northwest with activity slowly advancing east toward
TCL/BHM first very early Friday morning with rain chances for the
rest of the northern sites through midday. Expect increasing mid-
level clouds with some low- level clouds possible early Friday
morning with some patchy fog potential southwest before sunrise.
Chances for showers will be too low to include at MGM/TOI through
this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Min RHs will be in the 30s again this afternoon with 20 foot winds
from the south around 5-7 mph. A few isolated showers may develop
during peak heating this afternoon, but chances remain low.
Moisture increases on Friday as a system moves into the area. RH
values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with
40s elsewhere. 20 foot winds from the south around 4-6 mph. Good
overnight recoveries are expected each night. Scattered
showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the northwest and
spread east through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  85  62  83 /  30  50  70  60
Anniston    64  85  63  83 /  20  40  60  60
Birmingham  67  84  64  83 /  30  50  60  50
Tuscaloosa  68  84  64  84 /  30  50  50  40
Calera      66  84  65  83 /  20  40  50  50
Auburn      65  85  67  83 /  10  20  40  50
Montgomery  65  87  66  86 /  10  20  30  40
Troy        63  87  65  87 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05