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000
FXUS62 KCHS 231950
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
350 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will slip down through the region for the
middle part of the week. High pressure builds back through the
region late week through the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
This afternoon, the Wilmington, NC radar KLTX detected a sea breeze
drifting inland. Based on the recent runs of the HRRR, the sea
breeze should continue to drift inland through the rest of the
afternoon into early this evening, resulting in a wind shift from
the south. High pressure centered over the forecast area today will
slide slowly east over the western Atlantic tonight. To the west, a
cold front is expected to reach the southern Appalachians by
daybreak Wednesday. This pattern should support light SSW winds
across the forecast area tonight. The combination of light winds,
clear sky, and deep dry air should result in good radiational cooling
conditions tonight. However, the light SSW winds should keep
temperatures warmer that values reached this morning. Low
temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 40s inland to the
mid to upper 50s along the coast. These temperatures may remain
around 10 degrees warmer than this morning`s temperatures. Some
steam fog will be possible over water late tonight, but less than
this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Elongated surface high pressure will sag into the southern
Georgia/northern Florida region Wednesday but remain in control of
our weather through the day Wednesday. That will keep things precip-
free once again although we may see some late day increase in cloud
cover as a weak surface boundary approaches from the NW (see below).
South to southwesterly low level flow will continue our warming
trend with afternoon highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s and close
to seasonable normals.

Meanwhile, northern stream short-wave energy will be swinging
through New England through the middle part of the week with
modestly lower mid-level heights dipping into the southeast.
Attending surface low will also be tracking up through New England
during this time with the southern tail end of a cold front and
narrow axis of higher PWAT air (just over one inch) sagging down
through the Carolinas and eastern Georgia through early Thursday.
Larger scale forcing along the boundary looks very minimal and
blended model consensus guidance keeps the forecast area dry
Wednesday night into Thursday. That said, recent high-res guidance
(H3R and NamNest) does show a narrow line of isolated showers
dipping down through the northern part of the forecast area
Wednesday night before dissipating. We are not totally sold that we
will actually get any measurable precip given stubborn dry low level
air. But we have opted to introduce some low end (isolated) pops to
the northern portion of the forecast area...mainly the Charleston
"quad-county" region.

Heading into the latter half of the week, aforementioned boundary
and higher PWAT air may be stalling across the southern Georgia/
northern Florida region as northeasterly flow becomes re-established
across the forecast area. While we cannot completely rule out a low-
end chance of a few showers/sprinkles either along the moisture axis
or coming off the Atlantic, current plan is to maintain a dry
forecast through the latter half of the week. Temperatures may dip
back a few degrees into the upper 70s to lower 80s behind the
boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level flow is looking to become a bit more amplified late week
and through the upcoming weekend with deepening troughiness
developing through the western CONUS and downstream sharp ridging
setting up along much of the east coast. Surface high pressure will
regain a foothold throughout much of the eastern U.S. and will
maintain dry weather through the period. Temperatures will continue
to run near or around normal late week into the weekend, and
further to above normal late weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 24/18z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered over the coastal waters today will
slide slowly east over the western Atlantic tonight. To the west, a
cold front is expected to reach the southern Appalachians by
daybreak Wednesday. This pattern should support SSW winds across the
coastal waters tonight, favoring values between 10-15 kts. Seas are
forecast to range between 2-4 ft tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: South to southwesterly flow is anticipated
Wednesday with a touch of gustiness possible although winds and seas
will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Winds veer
northeasterly/easterly for the latter half of the week, as a weak
cold front slips through the region and stalls to our south. Again,
some gustiness is possible across the coastal waters, especially on
Friday, but expected to remain below SCA criteria. High pressure
returns thereafter.

Rip Currents: Winds veer southerly Wednesday. However, lingering 10
second swell and proximity to the full moon will keep an elevated
risk of rip currents at all beaches through Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar will undergo maintenance today through April
26th. Critical electrical work is planned at the radar site
which will require the radar to be offline until the work is
completed. Once the radar is taken down, it will remain offline
until all electrical work is finalized. The radar is tentatively
scheduled to return to service by April 26.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...TBA
LONG TERM...TBA
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...TBA