Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 281113
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
613 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a trough exiting off to our
east as an upper ridge builds in to our west. At the surface, high
pressure remains in control of the region. As we move through the
day, the surface high will slide east lead which will allow for
onshore flow to return. We will see a gradual increase in low level
moisture through the day which may lead to some fog development
tonight. However, confidence is low in our fog potential as winds
will be increase in response to a deepening low across the Plains.
Breezy conditions are in store on Friday as southeasterly winds gust
up to 35 MPH at times. This may open up a brief period of elevated
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours (See fire section
for more).

Temps today will be a bit warmer with highs settling into the mid
70s along the coast to the mid 70s out west. Similar conditions are
expected on Friday with highs a couple of degrees warmer. The return
of onshore flow will keep our lows tonight 5-10 degrees warmer
than what we will see this morning.

Lastly, maintained a moderate risk of rip currents through tomorrow
for our Gulf-facing beaches. Swells at buoy 19 are hovering around
8s at a height of 5ft. Gerling-Hanson plots suggests this trend will
continue. Onshore flow will likely not be strong enough today to
nudge us into the high risk category but we will monitor trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Key Messages:

▶ High chance (60-85%) of at least 100 degrees max temperatures
Monday over the Brush Country

▶ Next cold front Monday night into Tuesday morning

South Texas will remain under quasi-zonal flow positioned over the
northern ridge centered over Central America. This will lead to rain-
free fair weather days with temperatures warming through the weekend
into Monday. In fact, there is a high chance (60-85%) that max
temperatures will reach or exceed 100 degrees over the Brush Country
on Monday; this is thanks to climatological max 850mb temperatures
according to the NAEFS and ECENS.

Following the hot Monday, a deep upper trough and mid-level low over
the SW CONUS will elongate and shift eastward across the Great
Plains heading into the middle of next week. This will push a cold
front through South Texas Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a very
low (10-15%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria
Crossroads and cooler temperatures in its wake. There is also a low
chance of elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country
late Tuesday morning and afternoon as relative humidity drops below
20 percent and winds exceed 20 mph. A reinforcing surge of high
pressure pushes through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Positive mid-level vorticity will hang around as a cut-off mid-level
low develops over northern Mexico, moves into South Texas beyond the
forecast period. However, at first glance moisture will be below
normal in wake of the aforementioned front

Wednesday`s highs may drop down into the 70s across most of the area
with lows Wednesday night dropping into the upper 40s over the
northern Coastal Plains and to the mid 50s along the coast and Rio
Grande Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Light and variable
winds this morning will shift to the southeast through the
afternoon. Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts from
20-25 knots possible. Winds will weaken late this evening.
However, CRP/LRD will remain elevated through the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Winds will regain an east-southeasterly component through the day
today. Onshore flow will strengthen on Friday in response to a low
pressure system across the Plains. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed on Friday. Winds across the nearshore waters
will weaken over the evenings hours while remaining elevated
offshore as we head into the weekend. Moderate onshore flow
Saturday through Sunday will become moderate to strong Monday. A
cold front passes through Tuesday morning, shifting winds out of
the north. Northerly winds become strong Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through
the coastal waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Onshore flow will gradually return to the region today. This will
allow for moisture to slowly increase as we head into the weekend.
Onshore flow will strengthen on Friday in response to a low pressure
over the Plains. As winds increase to 25-30 knots (thanks for a 30-
40 knot LLJ), we may see a brief period of elevated fire concerns
Friday across the Brush Country. This is all dependent on how
efficient our moisture return is over the next couple of days. At
this time, confidence is low in this conditions developing as the
latest round of guidance has low probabilities for these stronger
winds occurring while RHs are low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  61  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          79  55  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            87  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             84  57  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          76  66  77  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           86  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        82  59  80  64 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       78  66  77  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...TC/95


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