462
FNUS73 KDLH 150939
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Riley Lake WMA...USFS Chequamegon Nicolet National Forest
National Weather Service Duluth MN
439 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 15.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly sunny skies early this morning gives way to partly sunny skies
this afternoon. Relative humidity will be able to drop out into the mid-20s
with good mixing. Expect fair to good smoke dispersal in the late morning
and afternoon. Strongest wind gusts out of the east up to 10mph, but otherwise
sustained winds 4-7mph expected. Light rain tonight lasts into Thursday when
one to two tenths of an inch of rain is forecast by tomorrow afternoon.

The minimum relative humidity only drops to 55-60% Thursday behind a cold
front. There is a 20% chance of isolated non-severe thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the fire site Thursday morning and afternoon which would create
the potential of gusty, erratic wind gusts tomorrow.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL increasing to 6700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 7 mph becoming around 7 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (21200-40000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  65  66  68  70  71  70
RH..............34  30  28  26  26  25  26
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 4.9 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   6   7   7   7   7   7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100021  24  34  36  38  39  40

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL decreasing to 2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (42300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to fair
                    (4100-17000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.12 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     0      10     20     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     62     54     50     48     47
RH..............28     37     53     58     58     60
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 6   SE 6   SE 7   SE 8   SE 9
20 ft wind gust.9      9      12     14     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....6000   700    500    600    600    700
Transport wind..S 8    S 9    SE 12  SE 14  SE 14  SE 16
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100042     5      5      7      7      10

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 3400 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 21 mph shifting to the southwest 17
                    to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (11700-31300 knot-ft) increasing
                    to good (39600-58000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.15 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     60     60     50     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      2
Temp............44     45     50     56     61     64
RH..............73     82     86     80     75     70
20 ft wind......SE 9   SE 9   S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10
20 ft wind gust.16     16     18     18     18     16
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1100   1400   2000   2800   3400
Transport wind..S 17   S 21   S 20   S 18   SW 20  SW 20
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100015     20     24     31     46     58

$$
Forecaster...Nathan
Requested by...Connie Rasmussen
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414229.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL connie.rasmussen@usda.gov