Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 162006
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
306 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Mainly quiet weather to persist through the end of the work week.
Biggest issue will be a few pop-up weak showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon in the far south along the MO border with that activity
expected to push south of the area into early evening. Other issue
would be into Friday night as may have an area of showers and
thunderstorms move through the state into early Saturday associated
with a stronger system expected to impact the state this weekend.
Otherwise above average temperatures and mainly clear skies expected
for Thursday into Friday with an area of high pressure dominating
the region. Iowa then becomes sandwiched between the two jets and
two troughs into the weekend. GFS and EC differ a bit in the
strength of the northern trough skirting the northern US and pushing
through Manitoba/Ontario Saturday. This system will slide an
associated frontal boundary near the state Saturday with the GFS
more progressive with the trough and the front kind of washing out
before it gets to Iowa. The EC remains a bit strong and pushes the
front into northern Iowa by late Saturday. Both the EC/GFS have a
broad southern stream trough in place across the west/central US
with a piece of energy lifting into the region by late Saturday into
Sunday. The EC brings this energy through the state with some
interaction with the northern stream frontal boundary with
precipitation chances Saturday into early Sunday and then shoves the
front south and high pressure to build in for early next week. With
the more progressive GFS the front moves through and this system
deepens as it lifts northeastward bringing the system through Iowa
Sunday and greater chances for precipitation Sunday into Sunday
night.

Did linger some pops across the state into Sunday to account
for the GFS, but trends over the past few days lean toward the EC
solution. Either way the weekend looks to be a bit cooler and wetter
with more of an active period expected into the middle of next week
with a large cutoff trough over the west and pieces of energy set to
eject eastward through the central US. Precipitation trends will
impact temps next week, but currently have temps Monday through
Wednesday warming back into the low 80s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

VFR conditions and light/variable wind expected through the valid
TAF forecast period. Sct CU field to develop during the late morning
and afternoon periods with clear skies at night.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Beerends
AVIATION...FAB



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