Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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547 FXUS63 KDVN 110258 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 958 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...Updated for Hydro... .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief gusty winds are possible this evening with scattered showers behind a cold front. Thunderstorm potential is quickly diminishing. - Clouds will continue to decrease from north to south through midnight, allowing for a viewing of the northern lights. - Warmest day in the next week will be Sunday with highs in the 80s. - Active long term as a series of waves makes its way through the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mostly to party sunny skies were found across the area this afternoon. Temperatures in the mid to upper 60s were found area-wide. North of the area, another wave started moving into MN and N WI. A cold front with this wave was being pulled south into the area. This will serve as the main forecast problem in the short term. Two main things of interest are the chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening and how fast do clouds clear out after the cold front. Cold front timing and shower/storm timing have been rather consistent. Expect most of the showers/storms to enter the area between 01 and 02Z and exit our southeast by 05z to 07z. Clouds should clear quickly after the front moves through as drier air moves into the area. We currently have a clear forecast and I expect that to continue. That said, some CAA CU over MN behind the front does make me a little nervous, especially if it decides to turn to stratus, we could be out of luck with sky cover tonight. I do not see this happening, but we need to keep an eye on it as it would be the only way we aren`t clear. This evening, CAPE does build ahead of the front as dewpoints in the 50s start to pool ahead of it. This will help to develop thunderstorms, as the front moves south, cooling after the sun sets, should lead to a decrease in overall CAPE. This means the best chance for thunder will be across the far north as the showers and storms enter. With dry low levels, inverted V soundings are indicative of gusty winds with these showers. Wind gusts to 45 mph cannot be ruled out. With a decrease in CAPE overall risk for severe weather is so low that it doesn`t warrant a mention in the HWO. After this, a quiet Saturday is expected with similar temperatures to today. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Period will start out with short-lived ridging as a SW wave pulls warmer air into the area for Sunday. Temperatures into the low 80s are currently forecast. After this, guidance slowly brings this nearly cut-off SW wave across the area leading to an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances. Sunday afternoon we could see scattered showers and storms. While CAPE up to 2000 J/kg are possible, the shear is rather weak at 20-25 kts of deep layer. This suggests a multicell type of thunderstorm environment with strong storms. With the large T/Td spread could possibly see some strong to near severe gusts, especially if we can get that 2000 CAPE to develop. Tuesday On: There is uncertainty on how fast the rain moves out with most of the models lingering it across the south through Tuesday morning. Generally, we`ll be looking at a more tranquil pattern later Tuesday into Wednesday as a backdoor cold front advects in a cooler and drier air mass from the NE. NBM highs may be too warm for Wednesday, and latest trends in the deterministic models is to delay the next round of showers and storms until Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. A cold front will push through this evening and bring brief gusty winds over 25 kts along with scattered rain showers to areas north of I-80. High pressure builds into the region Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and some gusty northwest winds in the late morning and afternoon hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 955 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The Flood Warning continues for the Wapsipinicon River near De Witt. The initial crest has come in considerably lower and below flood stage, so the river is now expected to go into Minor flooding on the evening of Monday, May 13th when the second crest due to routed flow occurs. Given how the initial crest was lower and attenuation of routed flow confidence is dropping a bit on the river reaching flood stage. The overall situation with the Cedar and Iowa Rivers is more uncertain. Flood watches remain in effect for Marengo on the Iowa river, and the Cedar River near Conesville. The Iowa River at Marengo is forecast to go into Minor flooding Sunday evening May 12, while the Cedar River near Conesville is forecast to go into Minor flooding early Tuesday morning, May 14. Rainfall over the next 72 hours and where it occurs will be the deciding factor as to whether or not the Cedar and Iowa Rivers will reach flood stage near Conesville and at Marengo respectively. If the rainfall is lighter than expected then river forecasts may be lowered. However, if rainfall is heavier than expected then river forecasts may be raised. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Gross HYDROLOGY...McClure