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000
FXUS63 KEAX 152037
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low end chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this
  evening into the early overnight hours. Conditional threat for
  strong to marginally severe storms.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow morning with a
  few strong to marginally severe storms possible.

- Best chance for high impact severe weather is tomorrow
  afternoon, especially for areas north of Interstate 70 and
  east of Interstate 35 in Missouri. Very large hail and a few
  tornadoes are the primary threats.

- Another chance for showers and storms on Thursday morning and
  afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

- Dry and chilly this weekend, with temperatures below normal.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

500 mb heights plotted over water vapor imagery shows the mid
level closed low currently centered over the Colorado/Utah
border with attendant troughing over much of the SW CONUS.
Strong 500 mb winds are rounding the base of the trough and into
eastern CO/western KS with increased moisture and ascent evident
on water vapor imagery over the south-central Plains and into
the mid to lower Mississippi Valleys. At the surface, a
deepening low is currently centered over NE Colorado/W Nebraska
with a warm front draped west to east into north central
Missouri. Another warm afternoon is ongoing across the area
with 3 PM temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s
with breezy southeasterly winds. There will be a chance for some
showers and potentially a few thunderstorms to develop later
this evening into the early overnight period, but convection
allowing models do not seem to be over enthused by this
possibility. If anything does manage to initiate, a few storms
could potentially be strong to marginally severe, with large
hail being the primary threat.

Better storm chances arrive tomorrow morning thanks to improved
forcing for ascent, as the 500 mb low should be centered over
western KS and the surface low should be centered over south
central Nebraska with a cold front extending southward from the
surface low through roughly Salina KS and just west of OKC by
around 7 am. CAMs show widespread convection developing out
ahead of the aforementioned cold front over KS and moving
eastward, crossing the MO state line by around 8 am tomorrow
morning. The morning convection does not look particularly
impressive at this time, although some strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible, especially over far NE KS and NW
MO.

The biggest concern for high impact severe weather comes
tomorrow afternoon as the 500 mb low moves into eastern
Nebraska and a band of 50 to 80 knot 500 mb winds overspreads
the region. This will provide steep lapse rates and excellent
deep layer wind shear capable of yielding supercells that could
produce very large hail. Additionally, low level wind shear and
hodographs will support the chance of tornadoes, and perhaps
even stronger tornadoes (EF2+) over north-central and
northeastern Missouri. This will largely be dependent on how the
morning convection evolves and if we are able to get good
enough clearing to allow for strong destabilization. CAMs are
not in particularly great agreement at this time, but they do
overall support the idea that discrete supercells will be
possible tomorrow afternoon, especially for areas north of the
Missouri River and east of Interstate 35.

The severe weather threat should conclude by late
afternoon/early evening as storms exit northeastern MO, but
isolated to scattered showers may be possible along and ahead of
a secondary cold front tomorrow evening. Outside of the severe
threat tomorrow, very strong ambient southerly winds are
expected tomorrow morning into tomorrow late afternoon, with
sustained winds on the order of 20 to 30 mph and gusts as high
as 40 mph, turning southwesterly behind the initial Pacific cold
front tomorrow afternoon.

Wednesday looks to be dry, with skies clearing by early to mid
afternoon and highs ranging from as chilly as the mid 60s over
far NE Missouri to as warm as the upper 70s for areas south of
the KC metro. Heading into Thursday morning, a northern stream
mid/upper trough should shift east from the Northwest into the
Upper Midwest, sending a cold front through the area and
bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. As of
now, it appears that the chances for strong to severe storms
should remain south of our region. High temperatures for
Thursday will be very dependent on the timing of the front. As
of now, forecast highs over NW Missouri where the front will
move through much earlier in the day are only in the mid 50s,
with highs as warm as 70 degrees toward the Ozark Plateau where
the front will be slower to move through. However, the NBM 25th
and 75th percentiles for high temperatures at MCI are 56 and 68
degrees, respectively, highlighting the current uncertainty. The
weekend looks dry but chilly, with high temperatures below
normal.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Other than IXD, MVFR CIGs have moved out of the terminals with
ESE winds around 12 knots. A few isolated showers may be
possible later this evening into early Tuesday morning, but
confidence was not high enough to go with anything more
aggressive than VCSH. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms looks to be in the 13z to 17z time frame tomorrow.
Southeasterly winds should increase by tomorrow morning, with
gusts as high as 30 knots. Winds should turn to SSW by around
noon tomorrow, with gusts up to 30 knots remaining.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW