082
FNUS74 KEPZ 051616
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for OAKMONT...NEW MEXICO STATE FORESTRY
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1016 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on May 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
The light southeast winds will be replaced with breezy southwest
winds by early this afternoon. The southwest winds will also sweep
drier air back into the area to drop min RH`s down close to 10%.
We will have poor RH recoveries tonight (30%) and then more breezy
and very dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday. We will be close to
critical fire weather conditions today and then we will likely see
critical fire weather conditions for both winds and RH`s on both
Monday and Tuesday. Still no rain in the forecast through the end
of next week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......8200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (130300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (179900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........6      1      1      2
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............59     66     70     72
RH..............51     30     20     12
20 ft wind......S 10   SW 15  SW 15  SW 18
20 ft wind gust.17     24     24     26
Mix hgt (ft)....7100   7100   8200   8200
Transport wind..SW 17  SW 17  SW 24  SW 24
Haines index....3      2      3      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..130    130    180    180
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (158000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (11000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      4      7      6      6      7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............68     58     53     49     46     44
RH..............12     15     18     22     27     35
20 ft wind......SW 16  SW 16  SW 15  W 20   W 20   W 20
20 ft wind gust.26     26     29     36     36     35
Mix hgt (ft)....7200   7200   600    600    600    600
Transport wind..SW 20  SW 20  SW 20  SW 20  W 23   W 23
Haines index....5      5      5      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..158    158    11     11     11     11
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 21 to 26 mph.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 31 to 38 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (91000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (151100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (235100
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........8         1         1         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............43        54        64        68
RH..............38        28        23        17
20 FT wind......W 21G38   W 26G41   W 26G40   W 25G39
Mix hgt (ft)....2800      2800      5000      6800
Transport wind..W 31      W 31      W 35      W 38
Haines index....3         2         3         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..91        91        151       235
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Breezy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 20 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Clear. Breezy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 21 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 13 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...HALEY BOSS (IC-t)
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2413200.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV