790
FXUS64 KEWX 022312 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
612 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A slowly moving boundary can be seen on radar near New Braunfels
extending southeast into Gonzales. This boundary has served somewhat
of a focus for shower and isolated thunderstorm development in this
general area over the last several hours. High-res models continue
to struggle with making sense of this overly saturated chaotic
atmosphere with storms primarily driven off of mesoscale features.
Most of the CAMs show a lull in activity in the late afternoon
hours, but not too convinced with this quite yet and will leave some
low PoPs in the forecast through the late afternoon hours. The main
focus for additional activity this evening will be to the northwest
once again near a surface low near Abilene. This activity may track
into our northern Hill Country and northern I35 corridor counties
this evening. Can`t rule out some strong to severe activity as the
storms make it into South-Central Texas around 10 pm and the latest
Day 1 Outlook from SPC has this area in a Level 2 out of 5 (slight)
risk. This activity should diminish by 1 AM or so.

For the rest of the overnight period, patchy fog, isolated showers,
or drizzle will be possible through the morning hours. Low
temperatures will be warm once again, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
For tomorrow, expect another day of shower and thunderstorm chances
to primarily be driven by mesoscale processes for the most part for
our eastern half in a chaotic and moist airmass. There is some
signal for a decent chance of storms moving into our Rio Grande
counties from the west as some upper support arrives to the area in
the form of a weak shortwave. There is a level 1 (marginal) risk in
the Day 2 outlook for this activity. Highs tomorrow will be in the
80s and 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be mainly favored in
the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande tomorrow night and
will keep 20-30 PoPs there. Otherwise, lows will be back in the
upper 60s to middle 70s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A shallow upper level trough over the southwest will keep
southwesterly flow over TX through the weekend. A series of
shortwave troughs will move through this pattern generating chances
for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Convection will
initiate along a dryline in west TX and over the mountains in Mexico
and move toward the east. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be across the northern and western parts of our CWA. There may
be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear for storms to be
strong to severe. A low amplitude ridge will push up from the Gulf
bringing dry weather. This ridge will settle over the region for the
first half of next week. This will lead to warming temperatures with
highs reaching the lower to middle 90s over the eastern half of the
CWA and upper 90s to near 105 over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Showers and IFR ceilings have been tough to break at SAT and SSF
early this evening. Suspect that will continue through sunset, but
there is a chance MVFR recovery could be for the taking at both
sites before going IFR beyond 04Z. The same can be said at AUS where
IFR CIGS are expected as early as 04Z with LIFR CIGS looking likely
after 06-07Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF. DRT will have a couple hours at
IFR, but VFR ceilings should return by late morning. Meanwhile, at
the I-35 sites, have kept mention of thunder out for now as
confidence is too low in introducing a PROB30 group and not high
enough for even a VCTS tomorrow. Any storms that form our west this
evening are unlikely to make it that far east. VCSH has been
introduced at all sites beyond 18-20Z Friday as afternoon convection
is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  85  71  86 /  30  30  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  84  70  85 /  30  30  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  86  71  89 /  20  30  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            68  83  69  83 /  30  30  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  96  74  92 /  10  40  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  83  69  83 /  40  30  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             72  88  70  89 /  20  20  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  84  70  87 /  30  30  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  83  72  86 /  40  30  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  86  72  87 /  20  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           73  87  72  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...76
Aviation...MMM