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000
FXUS64 KEWX 092335
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
635 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The Tornado Watch for portions of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor
from Hays to Williamson counties has been replaced with a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch. The remainder of the Tornado Watch has been
cancelled. Isolated storms will be possible near and north of the
surface boundary draped from Gillespie east into northern Travis and
southeast Williamson counties. The atmosphere remains very unstable
and uncapped, so any storms that develop in the weakly forced
environment now into the early evening will be capable of quickly
going severe and producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Additional storms are expected late evening and overnight as the
surface front catches the dry line to the west and moves east through
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

As of this writing (around 230 PM), there are a few showers across
the local area especially across the Hill Country. This lull in
shower and storm activity was anticipated based on hires models.
However, it is forecast to be short-lived as storms begin to develop
mid to late afternoon around the Hill Country and areas along and
east of I-35. We remain under a Tornado Watch for areas  along and
east of Highway 281 and to the north of Bexar until 5 PM. New storms
are likely to develop this evening into the overnight hours as a dry-
line line continues to push across the Rio Grande Plains and it gets
picked up by a Pacific front. A second surge of dry and stronger
winds are forecast later tonight into Wednesday.

The atmosphere is prime for storms to rapidly grow and become severe
for the next 12 to 18 hours. The primary threats are large to very
large hail and isolated tornadoes and thunderstorm wind gusts up to
70 MPH. Some of the stronger storms could produce heavy downpours
which could lead to some localized and street flooding. Stay tuned
for any weather updates this evening and the possibility of new
convective watches.

As mentioned above, a dry-line is moving across the Rio Grande with
hot and dry conditions in the wake of it. Northwest winds around 10
to 20 MPH are occurring as of 2 PM with relative humidities ranging
from the teens into the low 20s. With the anticipation of these
conditions to continue through this evening, we upgraded the
Rangeland Fire Danger to  a Red Flag Warning for parts of the
southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains through 10 PM.

Back to the severe weather conditions for tonight, the convective
line is expected to push across the I-35 from around 9 PM to 3 AM
(early Wednesday) and from 3 AM to 6 AM across the Coastal Plains.

Wednesday looks to be dry and cooler but also breezy to windy. Fire
weather concerns are expected for the southern Edwards Plateau and
the Rio Grande Plains on Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning could be
issued in future weather packages (this evening or overnight). With
breezy to windy conditions expected for most areas of South Central
Texas on Wednesday, a Wind Advisory is also likely to be issued in
future packages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Calmer weather conditions will set in after an active start to the
week as upper level ridging is expected to build in behind the
eastward departing trough. The ridging will result in a dry pattern
across south-central Texas with warming temperatures through the
weekend. On Thursday and Friday, minimum relative humidities are
forecast to remain in the teens and low 20s across much of the
western half of the CWA. On Thursday this should not be much of an
issue due to surface high pressure keeping winds relatively light
across the area. However, on Friday this surface high will push east
which will bring initially dry and breezy return flow before
moisture begins to work back into the region Friday night into
Saturday. Therefore, near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions seem plausible for Friday afternoon.

Other than it being warm and increasingly humid, there are no
weather concerns over the weekend as a sub-tropical ridge remains in
place over Mexico. Then, on Monday-Tuesday of next week our next
upper level trough will approach from the west. While there is still
plenty of time for this to change, it appears the upper low will
take a northeasterly trajectory out of the Desert Southwest/Four
Corners which would keep much of the forcing and associated
precipitation chances to the north of south-central Texas through
Tuesday at least. For now, we see no reason to deviate from the
blended guidance which gives northern portions of the CWA a 20-30%
chance for some showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday.
Regardless, temperatures look to be well above normal just ahead of
this system with widespread high temperatures in the upper 80s to
upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Isolated severe TSRAs ongoing early this evening near and north of
AUS. TSRAs are expected to increase in coverage this evening and into
the overnight hours as a cold front moves through the region.
Conditions are favorable for some storms to contain large hail and
very gusty winds. AUS should be at risk for TSRA activity 00Z-04Z
and SAT 03Z-06Z before activity shifts east into the Coastal Plains.
VFR conditions prevail Wednesday behind the cold front, with strong
NW winds 15-25 KT and gusts 25-35 KT possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Red Flag Warning is in effect for the southern Edwards Plateau and
Rio Grande Plains through 10 PM due to low relative humidity and
breezy with gusty conditions up to 40 MPH. Another Red Flag Warming
is likely to be issued later tonight for the same areas for
Wednesday as low relative humidity and breezy to windy conditions
remain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              58  74  52  80 /  70  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  73  50  79 /  70  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  76  51  82 /  70   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            54  70  49  77 /  50  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           57  83  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  71  50  77 /  70  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             55  79  48  85 /  30   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        57  75  49  80 /  70  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   61  74  50  77 /  80  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       58  75  50  82 /  50   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           59  78  51  82 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...76