547
FXUS64 KEWX 030640
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
140 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A slowly moving boundary can be seen on radar near New Braunfels
extending southeast into Gonzales. This boundary has served somewhat
of a focus for shower and isolated thunderstorm development in this
general area over the last several hours. High-res models continue
to struggle with making sense of this overly saturated chaotic
atmosphere with storms primarily driven off of mesoscale features.
Most of the CAMs show a lull in activity in the late afternoon
hours, but not too convinced with this quite yet and will leave some
low PoPs in the forecast through the late afternoon hours. The main
focus for additional activity this evening will be to the northwest
once again near a surface low near Abilene. This activity may track
into our northern Hill Country and northern I35 corridor counties
this evening. Can`t rule out some strong to severe activity as the
storms make it into South-Central Texas around 10 pm and the latest
Day 1 Outlook from SPC has this area in a Level 2 out of 5 (slight)
risk. This activity should diminish by 1 AM or so.

For the rest of the overnight period, patchy fog, isolated showers,
or drizzle will be possible through the morning hours. Low
temperatures will be warm once again, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
For tomorrow, expect another day of shower and thunderstorm chances
to primarily be driven by mesoscale processes for the most part for
our eastern half in a chaotic and moist airmass. There is some
signal for a decent chance of storms moving into our Rio Grande
counties from the west as some upper support arrives to the area in
the form of a weak shortwave. There is a level 1 (marginal) risk in
the Day 2 outlook for this activity. Highs tomorrow will be in the
80s and 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be mainly favored in
the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande tomorrow night and
will keep 20-30 PoPs there. Otherwise, lows will be back in the
upper 60s to middle 70s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A shallow upper level trough over the southwest will keep
southwesterly flow over TX through the weekend. A series of
shortwave troughs will move through this pattern generating chances
for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Convection will
initiate along a dryline in west TX and over the mountains in Mexico
and move toward the east. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be across the northern and western parts of our CWA. There may
be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear for storms to be
strong to severe. A low amplitude ridge will push up from the Gulf
bringing dry weather. This ridge will settle over the region for the
first half of next week. This will lead to warming temperatures with
highs reaching the lower to middle 90s over the eastern half of the
CWA and upper 90s to near 105 over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Radar echoes are trending downward early this morning as low clouds
thicken and continue to develop. IFR is already in place along I-35
and will continue through most of the morning hours. Some patchy fog
and drizzle can also be expected given saturated conditions in the
boundary layer. Will need to monitor for some brief, VLIFR conditions
around sunrise, but will not include in the forecast at this time.
DRT is currently MVFR, but will trend downward into IFR around 09Z.
Slow improvement is anticipated by early afternoon as daytime heating
is realized and cigs rise. We kept the mention of VCSH for all sites
in the afternoon hours and opted for a PROB30 group for DRT as
convection over the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande develops
and moves eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  71  86  70 /  30  10  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  70  85  69 /  30  10  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  71  89  70 /  30  10  20  40
Burnet Muni Airport            83  69  83  68 /  30  20  30  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  74  92  73 /  40  30  30  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  69  83  68 /  30  10  30  50
Hondo Muni Airport             88  70  89  69 /  20  20  20  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  70  87  69 /  30  10  20  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   83  72  86  72 /  30  10  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  72  87  71 /  20  10  20  50
Stinson Muni Airport           87  72  89  72 /  20  10  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Platt