Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 110256
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1056 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
...New Update Wind Advisory|...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Wake low producing very gusty winds across portions of N and
central GA, with gusts of 30-45 knots in lower elevations with
much higher winds across some of the N mountains. A Wind Advisory
has been hoisted for areas NW and N of Macon. Thunderstorms have
been very limited in the County Warning Area as most of the deeper
convection remains closer to the Gulf Coast. It`s looking less
likely that there will be significant redevelopment across the
rest of the state, but isolated storms remain possible closer to
the frontal surface later tonight.
The Flood Watch remains in effect until 8 AM Thursday morning. QPF
values were adjusted down about an inch earlier in the evening,
but there remains the possibility of 2-4" of storm total rainfall
with locally higher amounts in areas with training echos from the
FL Panhandle and SE GA. /SEC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Primary forecast issue for the day will be the potential for
thunderstorms and severe weather, including flash flooding, across
southern portions of the CWA this evening and into the overnight
hours.
Strong/severe line of thunderstorms moving east along the Gulf Coast
this afternoon. The models have struggled with this system from run
to run, especially the track of the system. This initial system may
bypass much of the CWA to the south, but the SW corner of the outlook
area would have the best chances from seeing any convective impacts
from the line.
The hi-res models continue to fire shra/tsra on the backside of any
initial line that moves through during the evening in association
with strong mid level energy/trough. This secondary system may end up
evolving into another broken line of strong/potentially severe
thunderstorms overnight and into early Thursday morning. The primary
convective severe hazards will be damaging wind gusts and brief
tornadoes.
The secondary area of convection likely to develop with the
trough/strong shortwave energy will likely impact areas well north
of the Columbus to Macon line overnight. The convective mode may be
a bit more messy than down south, with widespread showers with
embedded thunder.
Another potential hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of
the southern CWA. With repeated convective systems moving across,
each one producing locally heavy rainfall, have gone ahead and
issued a Flood Watch for the potential for flash flooding. For areas
mostly along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon and along
and west of I-75. Widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is likely
with some locally higher amounts up to 5 inches possible.
Winds are expected to become gusty behind the front later Thursday
into Thursday night. The pressure gradient will tighten as a
deepening low pressure system moves from the Lower Mississippi River
Valley into the Ohio Valley tonight and early Thursday. Will hold
off issuing a Wind Advisory for now, but it may need to be
considered on later shifts.
NListemaa
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
The extended starts off dry as high pressure is building into the
Southeastern U.S. Fri morning. The pressure gradient is very tight
over the area so expecting winds to be fairly strong Friday.
Sustained winds Fri afternoon will be in the 15-25 mph range (The
strongest winds will be over NE GA) with Gust in the 25 to 45mph
range. Winds diminish Fri night as the High pressure ridge becomes
centered over AL/GA by daybreak Sat. This ridge will continue to
keep North and Central GA dry through Day 7.
Saturday will start our temperature rebound as upper level flow
becomes more zonal. By Monday we`re going to see highs in the mid
80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. All in all
expecting a nice dry weekend and next week.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in
the Atlanta metro area and area presently moving NNE. This activity
should gradually shift E over the next couple of hours. There may be
a broken line of showers and thunderstorms that develops closer to an
approaching surface front that sweeps E across the area after midnight
tonight. Have introduced a PROB30 thunderstorm line to the N GA TAF
sites. Low ceilings and isolated shower activity will linger as
wrap-around moisture continues until mid/upper level low lifts NE
away from the area Thu afternoon. Winds will be tricky in the short
term as winds from convection have disrupted gradient flow. However,
stronger and gustier SE winds are expected later tonight, with winds
shifting to SW by mid-morning Thu.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low-medium on thunderstorm re-development later tonight, medium for
other elements.
SEC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 62 75 51 69 / 100 90 0 0
Atlanta 64 70 51 68 / 90 40 0 0
Blairsville 59 66 45 61 / 80 60 20 10
Cartersville 62 69 48 68 / 80 40 10 0
Columbus 66 72 52 73 / 100 40 0 0
Gainesville 63 71 50 67 / 100 60 10 0
Macon 66 76 52 73 / 100 80 0 0
Rome 63 68 49 69 / 90 50 10 0
Peachtree City 64 71 49 70 / 100 40 0 0
Vidalia 67 80 55 74 / 80 100 10 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>060-066>070-078-079-089.
Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ069-072-078>083-
089>096-102>109.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SEC