Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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879 FXUS65 KFGZ 070917 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 217 AM MST Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Windy and dry weather is in store for today, with seasonable temperatures. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected north of the Mogollon Rim. Look for below average temperatures Wednesday through Friday and above normal temperatures returning over the weekend. Typical spring- like breezes will be around after today. && .DISCUSSION...The low pressure system currently centered over the Wyoming/South Dakota border will continue to keep pressure gradients tight across northern Arizona. As a result, expect gusty winds throughout the afternoon especially near, north and east of Flagstaff. Thus, a Wind Advisory remains in effect from 12 PM MST/1 PM MDT today to 7 PM MST/8 PM MDT this evening. Winds are not the only focus with this long-wave trough, but also elevated fire weather concerns. There is a Red Flag Warning issued for the same timeframe as the Wind Advisory for many areas along and north of the Little Colorado River Valley. The elongated low over centered over the northern plains will gradually sag over northern Arizona Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern will bring afternoon winds down to typical spring-like conditions, along with below normal temperatures. On Friday, models indicate a closed low forming off the backside of the elongated low and centering around southern Nevada. As this low wobbles around the Southwest, slight chances for showers look to return to the forecast, primarily for the Four Corners and AZ/NM border areas. There is still uncertainty for how long this closed low will stick around the region, but strictly looking at the GFS guidance, a slight ridge will form behind the low by the end of the weekend/early next week bringing above normal temperatures back to our forecast. There is still time to solidify the trajectory/impacts of this low, so check back for updates later in the week. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 07/06Z through Wednesday 08/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds increasing to SW-W15-25g30-35kts from 18Z through 02Z, then decreasing after sunset. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/06Z through Friday 10/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Daily W-SW sfc winds 10-20g25kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Near seasonable daytime temperatures. Gusty southwest winds and low RH values will lead to Critical Fire Weather conditions north and east of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Winds decrease on Wednesday with a slight increase in RH expected. Thursday through Saturday...Gradually warming temperatures through the week. Southwest-west winds 10 to 20 mph on Thursday, becoming northerly 10 to 20 mph Friday and becoming gustier on Saturday. Mainly dry conditions expected but a slight chance for showers over the eastern zones Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ today to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-005-009>015-039-040. Red Flag Warning from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ today to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ109-110-112>114-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff