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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221753
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1053 AM MST Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue through the
middle of the week. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return for
the second half of the week, with chances for showers working into
the forecast from Thursday onward.

&&

.UPDATE...Temperatures have warmed quickly this morning, with mid
60s in the mountains and well into the 70s for the valleys at 930
am. There will be just enough moisture around for some high-based
cumulus today, with southwesterly breezes of 10-20 mph. No
forecast updates are needed this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...Clear sailing through Wednesday,
with above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies.
Southwesterly winds will start to increase daily, peaking on
Wednesday, as the current ridge axis slides eastward. This opens
the door for long-wave troughing over the western United States
late in the week and next weekend. The storm track is shifting
north, which is normal, so precipitation impacts look minor here.
Main impacts will be significant cooling and continued gusty winds
for our area, with chances for mainly light showers and a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 22/18Z through Tuesday 23/18Z...VFR conditions
under mostly sunny skies. Localized MVFR will be possible due to
FU/HZ near prescribed fires with the main impacts expected near
KPAN. SW surface winds at 10-15 kts, gusting near 20-25 kts will
become light and variable after 02Z. Even stronger gusts expected
after 17Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 23/18Z through Thursday 25/18Z...Mostly VFR
with occasional MVFR conditions in FU/HZ near prescribed fires.
SW winds 10-20 kts, gusting near 20-30 kts from roughly 16Z
through 02Z each day. Winds will subside overnight. A slight
chance of SH enters the forecast on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions. Winds
southwest 10-20 mph, gusting 20-30 mph. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20%.

Wednesday through Friday...Slight chance of showers on Thursday.
Otherwise, dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Southwest winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH 10-15% on
Wednesday, increasing to around 15-30% Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/Peterson
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff