Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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779 FXUS64 KFWD 020020 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 720 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Evening through Friday Morning/ Through the next several hours, scattered showers and storms will continue to move northward across South and Central Texas. Flash flooding has already been reported with a couple of the more slow-moving storms in Limestone county. The potential for strong to severe storms capable of hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and flash flooding will persist as these storms migrate north. Further to our west, there has been ample convective initiation off of the dryline thanks to an incoming shortwave. As the aforementioned shortwave continues across the state, the discrete cells and clusters that have originated off the dryline to our west will advance east across the region overnight. Current CAM guidance is quite a bit less organized than compared to yesterday, which may help to temper the severe threat somewhat. However, the environment across North and Central Texas will remain conducive for primarily hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat, while non-zero, remains on the lower side as low level SRH remains unfavorable. None the less, make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings overnight tonight. The rising concern going into the overnight period is the potential for flash flooding. While we have been able to dry out a little with a few days of no rain, the soils are still fairly saturated. Forecast soundings continue to show rich PWATs in excess of 1.5" region-wide through tonight, meaning these showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Flash flooding will become an issue especially in Central Texas where multiple rounds of activity are expected and where the heaviest rain is expected to fall. Expected rainfall amounts generally east of I-35 and south of I-20 through Thursday afternoon are 1-2.5" with isolated higher amounts to 4-5". By Thursday afternoon, any lingering convection from the overnight/early morning activity should be generally out of the CWA. While most will see a lull in storm activity through most of the afternoon, isolated to scattered convection will remain possible as an upper level jet moves in and provides some large-scale ascent. Later in the evening, another round of dryline-induced convection is expected out west. Guidance shows this moving mainly across North Texas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Strong to severe storms will once again be possible, with hail, damaging winds, and flooding the primary threats. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 229 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024/ /Thursday Night and Beyond/ This unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms expected through at least late Sunday. A cold front will sag south toward the Red River Valley Thursday evening with a dryline extending south out of southwestern Oklahoma toward the Texas Big Bend region. Convection initiation will likely take place near the triple point and along the dryline well west of our forecast area as surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE pool ahead of these features. Initial storm mode will likely begin as discrete/semi- discrete supercells, but transition to clusters of cells and possibly an MCS Thursday night as this activity shifts into our forecast area. Sporadic hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards. This activity should be progressive enough to preclude any widespread flooding concerns, but with the recent rainfall and saturated soils, a localized threat for flash flooding may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning, especially east of I-35. Much of the region will likely remain dry through the remainder of Friday, although isolated to scattered convection will be possible in the vicinity of the frontal boundary meandering near the Red River Valley and along any lingering outflow boundaries from the morning activity, primarily east of I-35. Additional development may occur across portions of West Texas along a dryline late Friday afternoon and push toward our western zones late Friday evening/night. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts would be possible if this activity is able to maintain into our western zones. More widespread rainfall is expected once again Saturday as another cold front is progged to shift into North Texas. Especially Saturday night into Sunday morning as guidance continues to suggest a more potent shortwave trough will move overhead this frontal boundary. By late Sunday into early Monday, the front will lift north, leaving our area mostly precip-free into early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight the strengthening of a mid-level ridge over portions of the Gulf Coast and northern Mexico by midweek next week. Rising mid-level heights and increasing south-southwesterly low-level flow will push temperatures into the mid/upper 80s, possibly lower 90s, by the middle portions of next week. With a humid airmass remaining overhead, heat index values could rise into the mid/upper 90s, possibly nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central Texas, by Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Summer is coming. I hope y`all are ready, because I`m not :( Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Scattered showers and storms continue to move across the region into western D10 this evening, with better coverage currently remaining across Central Texas. This will continue on and off ahead of the main bulk of activity, currently well to the west of the area. MVFR cigs will return around midnight at all sites. Clusters of storms are expected to move across the sites overnight, with direct impacts expected at D10 between 8-10Z and ACT between 9-11Z. Lingering showers and storms may occur for an hour or two after the main line/cluster, but should end just near daybreak. IFR cigs are expected at ACT along with some lowered visibility due to mist, while DFW stays MVFR. There is a lower chance for IFR, but guidance has backed off and probabilities are low at this time. Degraded flying conditions will persist through the morning, before improving over the afternoon back to VFR at all sites. Unfortunately, this will not sick around as MVFR cigs will return late tomorrow night. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 82 67 83 68 / 80 60 50 20 30 Waco 68 80 69 82 68 / 90 60 30 20 20 Paris 66 77 65 80 65 / 60 90 60 40 20 Denton 66 81 64 83 67 / 80 60 50 20 30 McKinney 67 80 66 83 67 / 80 70 50 30 30 Dallas 68 83 68 83 69 / 80 70 50 30 30 Terrell 66 80 67 82 67 / 80 80 50 30 20 Corsicana 68 80 69 83 68 / 90 70 40 30 20 Temple 68 80 69 83 68 / 90 50 20 20 20 Mineral Wells 66 84 65 84 66 / 80 30 40 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135- 142>148-156>162-174-175. && $$