Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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118 FXUS64 KFWD 292014 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 314 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/ Thick morning fog and low clouds continue to erode this afternoon with sustained heating. While visibilities have improved across the region, there are still some pockets of thicker low cloud cover. Until these erode this afternoon, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler beneath the clouds. Otherwise, most areas will see sunny skies by mid afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80s. While we could see some additional fog develop later tonight, southerly winds 5-10 mph may keep the boundary layer sufficiently mixed to inhibit dense fog. Weak shortwave ridging will persist across the Southern Plains through Tuesday and should keep things relatively quiet across North Texas, but southerly winds will pull moisture northward and a dryline will sharpen to our west. Latest model guidance does suggest that our ridging will pass to the east late in the day and weak ascent will overspread the Plains. The GFS is particularly bullish on thunderstorm development along the dryline late tomorrow afternoon, but it does have some support from the hi-res guidance. For now, we`ll keep PoPs at 20% and continue to monitor. Any storms that develop might be able to spread into our western counties during the late evening. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Onward/ A shortwave trough will sweep across the Rockies on Wednesday before lifting northeast through the Plains on Thursday. This will provide a couple of opportunities for thunderstorms, the first being Wednesday night associated with the dryline, and the second being on Thursday as an attendant cold front pushes through. Good instability will be in place for both events. Weak flow aloft may mitigate the severe weather threat for the Wednesday night convection, with effective shear values holding in the 15 to 20 kt range. Values will increase to near 35 kt on Thursday as the shortwave crosses the Plains, which could support severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. All activity will push south of the region Thursday night or Friday morning as the front heads for South Central and Southeast Texas. Slightly cooler weather can be expected this weekend in the wake of the front. The upper level pattern will remain unsettled, however, with the next shortwave shifting from the Rockies to the Plains Friday night. This feature will help ignite scattered showers and storms across the Big Country, which will enter our western zones Friday night. The front will be stationary to our south, keeping storms elevated in nature and largely sub-severe, though 8+ degree mid level lapse rates may allow for large hail in a few cells. A shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet will then lift northeast from West Texas into the Southern Plains Saturday night, bringing another potential round of elevated showers and storms, which may also be capable of hail. The front will then return to the north as a warm front on Sunday as an upper low approaches from the west and a lee-side surface trough strengthens. Scattered light rain showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two may accompany the front as it crosses the CWA, with activity shifting north of the Red River along with the front Sunday afternoon. The next rain chances will be Sunday night or Monday as the low traverses the Plains and generates more dryline convection. Temperatures will otherwise return to slightly above-normal values next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Low clouds and fog have generally eroded across the region, although some IFR cigs still persist to the south and southeast of the D10 airspace. VFR should prevail through the period with light and variable winds becoming southerly later this evening. While we could have some visibility reductions early Tuesday morning, we`ll keep things at 5SM BR for now. South winds will increase to 10-15 kt on Tuesday with VFR prevailing outside of morning fog. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 87 70 84 69 / 0 0 5 30 50 Waco 62 84 69 82 69 / 0 0 5 40 50 Paris 60 83 64 83 67 / 0 0 0 30 30 Denton 61 86 68 82 67 / 0 0 5 20 50 McKinney 61 84 68 82 68 / 0 0 5 30 50 Dallas 63 86 69 84 69 / 0 0 5 30 50 Terrell 61 84 67 83 68 / 0 0 5 40 50 Corsicana 64 86 69 84 70 / 0 0 0 40 50 Temple 62 85 70 83 69 / 0 5 5 40 50 Mineral Wells 62 88 68 84 68 / 0 0 10 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$