457
FXUS63 KGID 132019
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
319 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon
  through Wednesday night. Severe thunderstorms are generally not
  expected.

- Temperatures will be pleasant through Thursday with highs in
  the 70s. Temperatures will be warmer Friday through the
  weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s, with highs Saturday
  potentially approaching 90 degrees across most of the area.

- Off and on chances for thunderstorms exist across the area
  through the period, with the best chances for this occurring
  (beyond Wednesday) being over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An area of low pressure exists along the KS/MO border this
afternoon. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms rotating
around the low continue to impact mainly southeast portions of
the forecast area, but these will depart as the low continues
east into Missouri this afternoon and evening.

Tonight and Tuesday...
High pressure will briefly move over the area, even as a front
begins to move into the northern and central Plains. Overnight
lows tonight will be in the 40s. This evening and overnight,
with light winds across the area, RAP and HRRR model guidance is
showing a little bit of smoke from Canadian wildfires moving
down into Nebraska...while most of this will remain over
northeastern portions of the state, some of this may drift over
northern and far eastern portions of our forecast area. This
probably will not impact the surface too much, but you may
notice some haze in those areas Tuesday. With winds becoming
south to southeast Tuesday and a ridge in place, trended high
temperatures toward the higher side of forecast
guidance...especially west of Highway 281 where southerly winds
of 15 mph or greater are favored. With that, high temperatures
are forecast to range from the upper 70s to the low 80s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the forecast
area late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Although
overall any thunderstorms are not expected to be severe, with
increasing deep layer shear and marginal instability going into
Tuesday evening, cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm early on in this event (late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening)...so while there is a low chance of this
occurring, we could see a sneaky storm with some hail to nearly
quarter sized west of Highway 281 right along the frontal
boundary...but anything approaching severe should be limited to
just that. As far as rainfall amounts, even with pretty high
PoPs (50-70%), QPF values remain low, around 0.25" or less in
most places.

Thereafter...
A weak broad upper trough will be present over the central
Plains Thursday and Friday, bringing low chances (< 20%) of
showers and storms to the area. High temperatures will be in the
70s Thursday and in the 80s Friday. We have slightly better
chances of storms in the forecast (20-35%) this weekend, but
deterministic and ensemble models diverge a good bit this far
out. Ensembles seem to have a better handle on temperatures
Saturday, with two-thirds of the ENS and GEFS ensemble members
settling on highs in the 80s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

There may be borderline MVFR CIGS into mid-afternoon Monday, but
VFR conditions are expected from mid-afternoon Monday through
the end of the TAF period. Cannot rule out some haze throughout
the period, but currently do not anticipate impacts at the TAF
sites so did not include this in this set of TAFs.

FEW to SCT clouds from around 1400-3000 ft AGL may linger at the
TAF sites through the mid-afternoon hours Monday, but clouds
will slowly move off to the east/southeast later today, with
clear skies returning to the area Monday evening through the end
of the TAF period.

Winds will be out of the northeast at 10-13 kts (cannot rule
out an occasional gust to around 20 kts) Monday afternoon. After
14/00Z winds will diminish, becoming variable at 5 kts or less
late Monday evening, then out of the southeast at 5-8 kts late
Tuesday morning through the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford