Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260350
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
950 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm winding down from west to east tonight.

- Warming trend begins tomorrow and continues through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

As the area of low pressure moves northeast across Kansas and into
Iowa, wrap around moisture continues to bring light to moderate
snowfall to the Tri-State Area through tonight. As of 1:30 PM MDT,
radar reflectivities are filling in along and east of Highway 25
where majority of this rounds snowfall is expected for the area.
Locales along and east of a Trenton to Colby to Gove line could see
another 1-3" of snow tonight while locales to the west could see up
to 1". So far with the CAMs, the NAMnest is handling things the best
followed by the rap. That said, locales west of Highway 25 should
see any light snow showers end by 9 PM MDT while those to the east
could see the light to moderate snow exit the area around 2-3 AM MDT
(3-4 AM CDT). North-northwest wind with gusts of 40 to 55 mph remain
a concern through roughly 6 PM MDT. Once the sun sets and the core
of the system is further away from the area, winds will
gradually decrease through the overnight hours with gusts of
20-40 by midnight. With the continuation of hazards, the
Blizzard Warning and Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to
continue through 1 AM CDT/Midnight MDT. Overnight lows are
expected to fall into the upper single digits to mid teens
across the area with wind chills in the single digits above and
below zero through Tuesday morning.

Behind the current system, a weak surface ridge will move across the
Rockies and into the High Plains bringing a brief break in our
winter weather conditions. Tomorrow is expected to be dry through
the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. A shortwave
trough looks to move over the Rockies behind the weak ridge bringing
another round of light snow chances with (low confidence)to east-
central Colorado during the evening hours. Confidence is low for any
accumulation given the low amount of moisture in the lower to mid
levels of the atmosphere. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the
mid teens to lower 20s. Wind chills are forecast to fall into the
lower teens to the upper single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The area is under west-northwest flow aloft at the start of the long
term period as the trough continues its eastward progression and an
upstream ridge becomes situated over the western CONUS. Very low
chance for a rogue shower or two to develop during the day
Wednesday, but at least some increased cloud cover is expected
before drier/warmer conditions prevail during the latter part of the
work week and into the weekend. Some fire weather concerns may
return as RH drops into the teens west of Hwy 25 Thursday-Friday.
Winds gust 20-30 mph Thursday, only to around 15-20 mph Friday.
Towards the end of the period, an upper level low digging south
along the west coast will be the next system to watch for a return
of more active weather for the area. Temperatures remain below
normal Wednesday, becoming above normal Thursday on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northwest
winds gusting to around 30kts at taf issuance will continue to
slowly decrease, reaching 11-12kts from 12z-19z. A brief period
of light and variable winds develop from 20z-23z as high
pressure moves overhead. After 00z, winds will be from the
east-southeast then southeast at speeds under 10kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northwest
winds gusting to 35kts at taf issuance will slowly decrease
through the night into Tuesday morning with speeds around 11kts
by 18z. This will continue through about 22z before becoming
light and variable from 23z through the rest of the taf period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ004-015-
     016-029.
CO...None.
NE...Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99


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