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000
FXUS62 KGSP 260458
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1258 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front located just south of our area moves north as a
warm front on Friday and washes out across our area, but giving us a
cooler day because of clouds and a few showers. After that, expect a
warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high
pressure takes over. A weak cold front is expected to approach from
the northwest in the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...Cirrus clouds continue to move in from the northwest
around a stg upper ridge, while the ern zones are beginning to see
mlvl cloud development due to persistent ne/ly Atl moist flux. The
increasing cloud cover and fairly high sfc tdd/s will offset much,
if any, dense fog thru the overnight.

Otherwise, downstream of large-scale western height falls, a
building upper ridge will progress across the eastern half of the
country through the period. Confluent flow downstream of this
feature will support persistence of a 1030+ mb surface high over New
England, with circulation around this feature allowing for
development of an inverted surface ridge east of the Appalachians
tonight through Friday. S/SE flow above this shallow stable layer
will increase moist isentropic lift and upslope flow from around
sunrise through much of the day Friday. However, rising motion is
expected to be quite weak and moisture shallow, so PoPs are limited
to the 20-30% range and primarily confined to the mountains and
foothills. The larger impact of the weak lift is expected to be low
cloud development, which along with NE surface flow will
significantly limit the heating potential on Friday. Max temps are
therefore forecast to be 5-10 degrees below normal...or about 10
degrees cooler than today`s readings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Thursday: Looks like we will be dealing with expanding
and thickening cloud cover within the developing/lingering damming
regime Friday night.  A smattering of showers or light rain should
accopmany, mainly being forced by the easterly flow impinging upon
the higher terrain.  As upper ridging strengthens top the SE CONUS
and llvl flow veers to southerly, overall improvement is on tap
featuring dissipating showers and thinning of cloud cover on
Saturday.  At this juncture, as long as the expected improvement
plays out as expected, temperature should rise to around the late
April climo.  Should be a quiet and warm Sunday as upper ridge axis
keeps the atmosphere suppressed.  Llvl flow around Bermuda Hipres
will push lower elevation maxes to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday: The warming trend will be ongoing to start
off the work week thanks to lingering eastern seaboard deep layered
ridging.  Ridging will begin breaking down on Tuesday with moisture
and weak frontal zone energy spreading into the western cwfa.  It
looks like a second elongated frontal zone will approach the
mountains on Tuesday, and within the broad moist and weakly unstable
atmosphere a round of scattered if not numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are probable across the western cwfa.  Otherwise,
expect snother afternoon of piedmont lower and middle 80s for
maximums.  For the latter half of the period, the pattern remains
slowly progressive with daily chances of showers and storms, almost
summerlike with respect to the sensible wx as temperatures remaining
well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A moistening sfc wedge will make for lowering
clouds overnight into MVFR/IFR arnd daybreak across all TAF sites.
Expect low clouds to persist into the mid-afternoon before lifting
to VFR. KAVL will likely keep MVFR CIGs into the late period and
will also have the best chance for MVFR VSBY arnd daybreak. With
uncertainty in warm front precip coverage and the degree of sfc
moistening, have kept KAVL VFR with 6SM BR for now, then drop to
MVFR VSBY late period. Winds remain aligned ne/ly outside the mtns
with speeds 8-10 kts maintained. Winds at KAVL remain weak overnight
then align se/ly during the daytime period.

Outlook: Periods of low clouds are expected to linger into Saturday,
with drying expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could bring a
round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...SBK