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000
FXUS62 KGSP 230555
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Carolinas brings warmer weather on
Tuesday with dry conditions persisting over the area. Warm
temperatures will linger through the workweek despite a weak cold
front tracking across the western Carolinas on Wednesday. This front
may lead to rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially
over the immediate Tennessee Border.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday: Cirrus streaming in from the northwest has
gradually increased in coverage, but not going to impact the overall
forecast. Upticked dewpoints a bit based on the current
observations, which could lead to a larger area of frost development
if temperatures drop to what the forecast is tonight. These
conditions should enable good radiational cooling overnight with
lows expected to bottom-out about 8 to 12 degrees below climatology.
These cold temps coupled with light winds will likely lead to frost
development across the NC mtns and foothills where the growing
season has begun. Thus, a Frost Advisory is in effect for these
areas from 2 am until 9 am Tues morning. Other areas across the NC
piedmont could also see some patchy frost, however coverage will
likely be pretty sparse so those areas are included in the HWO for
the time being.

Otherwise, southern stream upper trofing will move off the Atlantic
Coast overnight and further offshore on Tuesday. At the same time,
another closed upper low will dive SE from Canada and open back up
as it moves over the Great Lakes. It will eventually approach our
area from the NW by the end of the period late Tuesday. At the sfc,
broad and dry high pressure will persist over the SE thru the period
and begin to shift off the SE Coast later on Tuesday as another cold
front approaches the western Carolinas from the Ohio Valley. Thus,
we can expect another mostly sunny day for Tuesday with temperatures
rebounding another 10 degrees or so. That should put highs near climo
across our area. With fairly good mixing expected Tuesday afternoon,
RH values will likely approach critical values again. Depending on
how land managers feel about fuel moisture levels and the potential
for fires to spread, Fire Danger Statements may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday: Starting off the short term in a quiet regime
with a trough to the north dipping southward toward the Ohio Valley.
A weak boundary could approach the area by Wednesday, but guidance
breaks it apart upon crossing the mountains. GFS and EURO do show a
narrow tongue of higher PWATS before drier air spills in by early
Wednesday. This could provide enough moisture to squeeze out some
rainfall, but QPF response is almost non-existent. Any measurable
rain is not expected at this time given the weak forcing and minimal
moisture. Once the boundary clears the region, high pressure builds
back and keep the area dry and quiet. Dewpoints will dip a bit on
Thursday but should remain high enough to keep RH values above any
critical thresholds for fire concerns. Temperatures will also dip
with the boundary passage and be a few ticks cooler on Thursday.
Overnight temps will remain warm and mild.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday: Continuing with the quiet pattern, the extended
portion of the forecast also looks to be rather mild. By Friday,
upper high pressure across the Gulf begins to amplify and  build in
a stout ridge over the eastern CONUS. This will be the pattern
through the end of the period as the ridge axis grows and the high
pressure gains momentum. This strong blocking pattern will help
direct areas of low pressure in the central plains toward the NE and
keeps the area dry for the entire period. With the sharp height
rises through the weekend, temperatures are expected the increase as
well. Guidance from the NBM has most of the area reaching the 80s by
Sunday and into Monday. Overnight temps will also continue to be
mild and warm. With the high pressure churning, it should provide
some moisture fetch to keep dewpoints higher, reducing fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period as high pressure centers over the area, which
has allowed all TAF sites to go light and variable for winds
overnight. A band of cirrus is pushing in from the northwest and
have included this in the prevailing line for all terminals. High
pressure will gradually push offshore during the daytime period
and allow for winds to toggle out of the southwest. Factor in good
mixing in the boundary layer and low-end gusts will overspread
all TAF sites during peak heating, so included this at KCLT and
elsewhere. Winds will remain elevated tonight, but low-end gusts
should diminish after sunset. An increase in cloud cover will begin
to overspread the region after daybreak Wednesday as a cold front
encroaches the region from the northwest later Wednesday.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight
as high pressure remains over the region. A cold front will approach
our area from the NW early Wednesday and move through during
the day. This system could bring some brief flight restrictions.
Drying returns Thursday into this weekend, but this is subject to
change as a warm front lifts north of the area by Saturday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ048-051>053-
     058-059-062>065-502-504-506>510.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CAC