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000
FXUS64 KHGX 150006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Surface high pressure across the northeastern Gulf and a sfc low
across the central Plains continue to enhance the warm and more
humid southerly flow across SE TX. Visible satellite imagery show a
parade of stratocumulus clouds developing/moving inland from the
Gulf this afternoon. Latest soundings from nearby stations show this
low-level moist layer persisting through much of the afternoon.
Ridging aloft continues to build across the southern Plains,
resulting in a stronger subsidence above the 900 hPa layer.
Therefore, expect gusty conditions at times as drier air mixes down
to the surface through early evening.

Persistent warm and more humid southerly sfc flow will continue to
increase moisture inland tonight and Monday. In fact, latest obs are
reporting PWs increasing into the 1.1 to 1.3 inch range this
afternoon. This will result in increasing cloud cover, likely low to
mid clouds, and temperatures on the mild side (mainly into the upper
60s to low 70s).

Ridging aloft remains strong by Monday, though increasing moisture
will keep mostly cloudy skies through most of the day. High
temperatures will generally remain into the low to mid 80s. A robust
LLJ will develop in advance of the next frontal boundary moving over
the Plains. Therefore, breezy southerly winds can also be expected
in the afternoon and evening.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Extended period looks to be warm with increasing RH levels and rain
chances across SE TX for the most part, but there could be a decent
cool down for the weekend.

Persistent onshore winds at the surface along with a steady S to SW
flow at the mid levels will help to warm temperatures for week. Day-
time highs will run in the mid to upper 80s for the Tues-Thurs time
period...with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Isolated showers/
storms may be possible during the afternoons (from a combination of
daytime heating, seabreeze and possible shortwaves in the W/SW flow
aloft), but a lot will also depend on the cap. But the best chances
of rain should be at the end of the week (Fri/Sat) with the arrival
and passage of the next cold front. However, long-range guidance is
still stalling this boundary near the coast...which is not terribly
surprising given the time of year. At any rate, though, if all goes
according to plan, Sat could see highs in the lower to mid 80s with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Winds will continue gusty this evening, but are expected to relax
to around 5-8 KTS tonight. MVFR cigs are expected to develop
overnight into Mon morning and are expected to gradually lift
during the late morning hours. S-SE winds will strengthen on Mon
and could range between 12-16 KTS with gusts of up to 28 KTS
possible at times.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Generally moderate to occasionally strong S/SE winds will persist on
through the middle of the upcoming week. Winds/seas could elevate en-
ough to require Caution and/or Advisory flags at times. A weakening
gradient will help to lower winds and seas by Wed through Thurs night.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  83  69  83 /   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  68  82  70  85 /   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  70  77  71  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24
MARINE...41