043
FXUS64 KHGX 082320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Isolated storms developing to our northwest could move into the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region later this afternoon into
late evening. These storms may become strong to severe and will be
capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and possibly a
tornado. Tornado Watch #210 has been issued for Burleson and is in
effect through 10 PM CT but could be expanded eastward. For those
who are over our northern counties, make sure to keep up with the
forecast updates and have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

For tonight, another warm and muggy night is expected with lows
in the low to mid 70s along areas north of I-10 and in the mid 70s
along areas south of I-10. Low overcast skies will once again
develop overnight along with areas of patchy fog. Fog could reduce
visibilites during your morning commute.

Conditions will start off warm and humid on Thursday and there is
a chance for fog to stick around through the mid morning hours
but is expected to gradually burn off as the day progresses.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop during the day,
but a strong cap will remain in place for much of Southeast Texas
and could inhibit the development. However, there are storms
expected to develop over Central TX ahead/along a cold front and
look to move into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region
sometime late afternoon into evening. Vort maxes are depicted in
the models with this activity and with CAPE values in the 3,000 to
4,000 J/kg range, dewpoints in the mid 70s, steep mid level lapse
rates, and SFC-6km wind shear of 40-55 knots, these storms could
very well remain strong to severe as they move over our region.
The greatest impacts with these storms continue to be large hail
and damaging winds (note DCAPE values between 800 to 1500 J/kg).
That being said, a tornado cannot be ruled out either. The area
of greatest risk remains to be over portions along and north of
I-10, but these storms have a chance to move south of this region
later in the night. SPC has placed an Enhanced Risk for severe
thunderstorms along a line from Burleson County northeastward into
Houston County and a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for
areas south of the Enhanced Risk line into I-10. Please continue
to monitor the latest weather updates and have multiple ways of
receiving warnings.

Showers and storms are expected to dissipate or move away from
the region near midnight CT. The cold front will push across
Southeast TX overnight into Friday morning and will result in
slightly cooler and drier conditions on Friday.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Front should be off the coast early Friday morning with a cooler,
slightly drier airmass filtering in. Though we`ll get rid of the
haze that`s been trapped under the inversion as of late, am still
anticipating some mid level cloud cover sticking around behind the
front.

Heading into Saturday night and Sunday, the front will move back
onshore as a warm front and bring the deeper Gulf moisture with
it. PW`s will climb overnight and thru the day Sunday - eventually
approaching 2" across parts of the region as a zone of low level
speed convergence sets up. In the upper levels, a series of
embedded upper level disturbances, sandwiched between a trof to
our northwest and ridging to our south, will traverse the area.
Combination of all of the above points to a wet Mother`s Day and
Monday. Considering deterministic model consistency, have gone
above NBM suggestions and closer to WPC`s guidance and CONSAll.
Wouldn`t be overly surprised if we see another widespread 2-3" of
rain across parts of the area. Normally that`s not much of a
headline getter, but considering saturated soils from the past
7-10 days of rain...any heavy downpours will be prone to runoff
faster than average. Way too early for any specific details in
this type pattern, but might be worth it to keep an eye on the
latest forecasts as we head into the weekend.

Improving conditions Tuesday and Wed as the mid-upper trof tracks
to our e/ne and we lose the large scale lifting and flow becomes
a bit more nwly.

47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings and hazy conditions will likely remain
in place through the rest of this afternoon. But by this evening, we
should see ceilings fall to MVFR...to then a mix of MVFR/IFR for VIS
and CIGs through the overnight/early Thurs morning hours. Slow grad-
ual improvement is then expected from late morning through the early
afternoon hours on Thurs. Elevated S/SE winds this afternoon will be
decreasing tonight (4-9kts) and staying low through tomorrow (as per
the weakening gradient in response to the approaching cold front).

Of note for this evening and again for tomorrow afternoon/evening, a
chance of strong/severe thunderstorms remains possible...mainly over
the northern counties/terminals. For now, not too confident with the
timing of things, so will not add any mention at this time. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Extended caution flags again thru the night for the 20-60nm
waters with 42019 still reporting 6ft seas. Fetch of moderate
onshore winds should maintain the somewhat elevated seas in the
offshore Gulf waters for the next couple days. Mariners should
note above normal flows from area rivers will lead to above normal
water levels and strong currents in the bays and intercoastal
waterway this week. The next cold front pushes off the coast late
Thursday night and early Friday morning. Moderate offshore winds
in its wake will be brief. The front will move back onshore as a
warm front on Sunday and onshore flow will resume and increase.
Periods of unsettled weather are possible Sunday and Monday.

47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

There is the chance for periods of showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday, but is not expected to result in any additional aerial
flooding. Although there have been decreases in the water levels
along the rivers, some will remain swollen for days (possibly
weeks). Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters.
Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.

River flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly
along portions of the Trinity river. The following river points are
at Moderate or Major flood stage as of Wednesday afternoon:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T
DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website
and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the
river flood threat continues.

Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous
rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through
the end of the week.

24

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Two record high minimum temperature records for the date of May 7
were at least matched in the Houston area yesterday. The City of
Houston record high minimum for the day was tied at 77. This
matches the old record from 2002. At Hobby, the record for the
highest minimum temperature for the date was broken. The low of 78
bested the old record of 77 degrees from 2003.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  90  69  83 /  20  30  30  10
Houston (IAH)  76  89  71  88 /  10  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  75  84  74  84 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...41
MARINE...47