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000
FXUS64 KHUN 152342
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
642 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High clouds continue to gradually spread into the mid TN Valley
from the west, as an upper ridge pattern expands across the
western Gulf states. A subtropical ridge at the sfc also remains
in place over the eastern Gulf Coast, translating into a SW flow
across much of the region. The combination of these features has
lead to a seasonably warm day, with highs expected to climb into
the lower/mid 80s for most spots. Little change is expected this
evening, other than a gradual increase in mid/high clouds. Lows
into early Tue look to fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s, which is
near 10F above normal for this time of the yr.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Cloud cover will continue to increase into the area on Tue, as a
potent upper low/trough axis lifts into the upper Midwest. An
attendant sfc low will also lift into the Great Lakes by mid week.
The cold front extending southward from this sfc wave will move
into the Mid South area Tue night, before crossing into the mid TN
Valley on Wed. Increasing showers/tstms are expected to develop
along/ahead of the oncoming front Tue night into Wed, with medium
chances for rain (40-60%) developing on Wed. The upper trough axis
will also continue to traverse eastward thru the OH Valley Wed,
with the better synoptic forcing for organized tstms north of the
area. Nevertheless, minimal low level convergence along the front,
coupled with SBCAPE around 1-2K J/kg may allow for a few stronger
storms on Wed capable of gusty winds and hail, mainly along/west
of the I-65 corridor.

Rain chances will then taper off late Wed into Wed night, as the
front invof the area gradually weakens and the better synoptic
lift translates well to the NE. However, a second upper wave
embedded within a near zonal flow may begin to cross into the
western half of the area Thu, with low chances for showers/tstms
developing later in the day. Seasonably warm temps will continue
for much of the upcoming work week, with highs Tue thru Thu mainly
in the upper 70s/mid 80s, while overnight lows trend predom in the
upper 50s/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Rain chances return late Thursday night as a secondary cold front
moves through. Low to medium rain and thunder chances will remain
through Friday morning. Medium to low rain chances remain through
the duration of the long term as several short waves ripple NE
along the western extent of the mid level trough. While severe
weather potential with any of these shortwaves is questionable at
this time, thunderstorms producing frequent lighting and gusty
winds look to be possible the entire weekend.

With the passage of the secondary cold front on Friday,
temperatures will take a slight dip through the weekend as
compared to our highs in the 80s this week. Temps look to be
limited to the low 70s and high 60s with Sunday being the cooler
of the two days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period as
high clouds continue to increase overnight. Winds will become
gusty out of the south once again between 10-20 kts from the late
morning through the afternoon on Tuesday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP.24