718
FXUS62 KILM 020535
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
135 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Forecast dries out and temperatures warm slightly Thursday and
Friday. A frontal boundary and disturbance aloft will bring
scattered showers and storms to the area throughout the weekend,
with some drying to follow late Sunday into Monday, but another
upper disturbance should increase shower activity again late
Monday into Tuesday before hot and dry weather arrives for
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Sea breeze convection was ongoing as of this writing, driven by
a relatively moist, unstable, and uncapped environment with
1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE analyzed as of 18Z, highest in the Cape
Fear region. Outflow from these showers and isolated storms
will act to stabilize the nearshore environment and help push
the sea breeze further inland, bringing the shower and storm
risk gradually away from the coast through the remainder of this
afternoon. Near I-95, a surface trough pushing southeastward
has provided enough convergence to yield spotty showers along
it, although these have remained shallow and relatively short-
lived as they drift southeastward.

This evening and tonight, nocturnal cooling will stabilize the
remainder of the area not affected by convection. With virtually
no cool/dry advection, along with weak or calm winds and mainly
clear skies, signals are pointing towards widespread fog
development, particularly with the extra soil moisture provided
by pop-up convection this afternoon nearer to the coast. Further
inland, fog/mist remains likely, but how dense it can become is
more uncertain as somewhat drier air will be nearby, especially
near/west of I-95. Morning lows on Thursday will be limited by
dewpoints and subsequent fog and/or low cloud development, with
low 60s expected.

On Thursday, after morning fog/mist/low clouds burn off by mid-
morning, mid-level ridging will support a very warm day with
highs reaching the mid-upper 80s inland and upper 70s to low
80s near the coast. Scattered fair-weather cumulus are expected
to develop as well, making for a summerlike day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid to upper ridge running up the Southeast coast will shift
slowly eastward through Fri night maintaining an unseasonably
warm and dry forecast with plenty of subsidence through most
of this period. Highs each day in the mid 80s inland, but
closer to 80 right near the coast with plenty of sunshine.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Ridge moves far enough east with a shortwave and front
approaching Fri night. Any pcp should hold out until after
daybreak on Sat, but model soundings do show mid to high
clouds increasing through Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moisture will increase through the atmosphere ahead of a
shortwave and front into Saturday. Soundings show mid to upper
level moisture working its way down through the column into
Sat aftn as instability increases with enhanced lift due to
shortwave riding through. With a southerly flow backing to the
southeast with sea breeze Sat aftn, should see a good push
inland and expect increased convergence inland closer to the
front and as sea breeze pushes inland with best chc of pcp in
the I-95 corridor Sat aftn. Coast may remain fairly dry Sat with
some mid to high clouds or cu present and increase in pcp
chances by Sun morning before shortwave reaches off the coast
and weak ridging builds in. The actual front gets muddled but
chc of shwrs/thunderstorms increases again late Mon into Tues as
another shortwave moves through. The coast may see there best
shot of rain at this time. A deeper westerly downslope flow
develops for Wed with a hot day on tap as ridge builds up the
Southeast coast and H5 heights increase up to 583 dm. Should see
80s through much of the extended period tampered by clouds and
shwrs but by Wed, expect some 90s if timing holds that far out
in time.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mix of VFR to IFR visibility across the area with a few IFR
ceilings as well. All terminals will trend to IFR visibility
during the next several hours with potential for widespread
dense fog lingering through 14-15Z. Once fog mixes out VFR will
dominate with minimal cloud cover in the area today. Winds will
veer from northeast in the morning to south-southeast in the
afternoon, with a weak sea breeze leading to somewhat stronger
onshore flow near the coast. Speeds will remain under 10 kt
across the area.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR through the period outside of
early morning mist/low cigs from Friday through Sunday. Flight
restrictions possible Saturday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... An increasingly ill-defined pressure
pattern will keep winds at or below 10 kts through the period
while the direction swings from southerly this evening to light
and variable tonight, then light easterly tomorrow morning and
settling on southeasterly during Thursday afternoon. South to
southeast wind waves in the 1-2 ft range will dominate the wave
spectrum with a weak easterly swell of around 1 ft at 10 seconds
still holding on.

Thursday night through Monday...A southerly return flow around
5 to 10 kts basically holds into early next week, backing to a
more SE direction in the aftn sea breeze each day. A longer
period easterly swell will mix in.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...RGZ/ABW