309
FXUS63 KIND 012237
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
637 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight

- Warmer next week with periodic thunderstorm chances. The best
  chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Radar was showing widespread showers lifting north across all but
the very far eastern parts of central Indiana within an area of
isentropic lift on the 305K surface. Hi-Res soundings and
condensation pressure deficits suggest far eastern sections will
also soon saturate down soon supporting 80% plus PoPs for the
remainder of the afternoon.

An upper trough will move to the east of the area tonight and a
ridge will build in in its wake. In addition, a surface system will
move across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. As this occurs, the
showers will decrease in coverage and end from west to east with
perhaps a few morning showers lingering over far southeastern
sections.

Hi-Res soundings showing a saturated boundary overnight and weak
surface pressure gradient supports light to calm winds. This will
likely lead to low stratus and or fog.

Soundings and ridging suggest there will be breaks in the cloud
cover Sunday afternoon which should lead to temperatures bouncing
back to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Meanwhile, the low clouds
and fog suggest temperatures will not fall much further than the
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Sunday Night Through Tuesday.

Quiet weather is expected for Sunday night into Monday with a brief
period of upper level ridging ahead of a fairly active week of
showers and thunderstorms. Late Sunday night an MCS is expected to
initiate across the Central Plains and push into Iowa and Missouri
towards Monday morning but this complex will dissipate before even
arriving into Illinois but convective debris from the system is
expected to reach the western counties Monday morning.  An outflow
boundary associated with this system may push as far as Indiana but
that will be dependent on how far the MCS is able to push into Iowa.

This scenario would allow for some convective initiation late
Monday, but this looks to be the unlikely scenario with storms most
likely staying to the west of the forecast area. The next round of
thunderstorms is expected to initiate across Kansas Monday night
with this system having a better chance but still unlikely to impact
portions of western Indiana.

Wednesday Through Saturday.

Broad troughing is expected towards the middle and and of the week
with weather being heavily influenced by residual outflow boundaries
from the thunderstorms earlier in the week which keeps confidence in
precipitation timing and chances fairly low. Towards the end of the
week there is better model agreement in a much stronger upper level
trough across the Great Lakes region bringing more robust
northwesterly flow at the surface and aloft which will bring cooler
conditions into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 637 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Impacts:

- Poor flying conditions tonight and Sunday morning

- A few rumbles of thunder are possible this evening

- VFR conditions developing Sunday afternoon

Discussion:

The combination of an upper level wave moving through the region and
a trailing surface low across Illinois has led to widespread showers
over central Indiana early this evening. Coverage will diminish over
the next few hours but scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder will linger into the overnight. Of greater impact to
aviators will be a continued lowering of ceilings to near 500ft
overnight with patchy fog as well. Steady southeast winds this
evening will become light and variable late tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers will linger into Sunday morning with
clouds remaining trapped beneath a shallow inversion. Ceilings will
improve only slowly before mixing out into a VFR cu field during the
afternoon. Winds will transition to N/NW as a high pressure ridge
expands across the region by late day.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Ryan