613
FXUS63 KIWX 150548
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
148 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms slowly arrive from south to north
  through this evening.

- Drying out after sunrise Wednesday and through most of
  Thursday.

- Warmer and remaining unsettled this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Band of shower/storms that impacted areas along and north of the
Toll Road have been slowly weakening. The slow movement resulted
in reports of 1.5 to over 2 inches of rain along with one report
of penny size hail in a stronger storm. While this band may
persist for a few more hours, focus shifts south to an area of
rain/rain showers. Over the last hour, better progress has been
noted over NW Ohio and an area of rain north of Indianapolis
struggling to expand north. CAMs seem to still expand this north
in the coming hours as the area of low pressure and associated
disturbance edge east across southern Indiana. Pops have been
adjusted somewhat, but confidence on northern extent remains low
and may require some further changes. Threat for thunder has
diminished, but for the time being left a slgt chc mention in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A surface low, stacked beneath a closed-low aloft, is spinning over
extreme eastern Missouri. A stationary front is noted in the
vicinity of the Michigan state line, where a could of showers
and a thunderstorm are ongoing. An area of showers have been
slowly making their way north through Indiana, on the nose of an
embedded vorticity maximum as seen on water vapor. These
showers will continue to slide north and eventually east
through the remainder of today and into Wednesday morning.
Instability and shear are lacking. Therefore, no severe weather
is expected. Overall, I do expect some showers to linger beyond
sunrise Wednesday from the Fort Wayne area southeastward,
followed by drying conditions.

A progressive mid-latitude jet stream keeps the frequent rain
chances in the forecast into early next week. Thursday will
offer a mostly dry day until showers and storms arrive near
sunset as a cold front approaches. Wet weather continues into
Friday as the trailing cold front interacts with a developing
low near the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This low threatens to
dampen Saturday as well; indicating Sunday could be the better
of weekend day. Amid the active pattern, broad brush POPs
continue into early next week. Trending warmer, however, with
highs in the 80s favored at times as southern US ride amplifies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A slow moving upper level vort max across west central Indiana
will continue to lead to unsettled weather and scattered to
numerous showers across northern Indiana through daybreak.
Through time, center of this upper vort max should sag southeast
allowing for a slight intrusion of drier low level air from
central Lower Michigan. Through daybreak, MVFR cigs expected at
KSBN, with IFR/lower end MVFR cigs at KFWA. Cigs in the 1-2k
foot range should hold at KFWA through early afternoon before
diurnal mixing improves cigs to 2-3k feet. An earlier
improvement is anticipated at KSBN which will be in closer
proximity to drier low level air across southern Lower Michigan.
Northeast winds around 10 knots will continue this period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Marsili