Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
000
FXUS64 KJAN 181922
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
222 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Tonight and Tomorrow: The severe weather and flooding threat in
the northern portions of the CWA will be the main focus for the
short term forecast as a slight and marginal risk areas for severe
will continue through midnight tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to
60mph, hail up to golf ball sized, severe storms possible will be
the main threats for this event as well as a tornado not being
able to be be ruled out. Flash flooding will also be possible near
the ArkLaMs borders due to the repetitive nature of the
forecasted storms heavy rainfall over the same area. While we
still expect this to be scattered thunderstorm event, if storms do
form there is the possibility for supercell development which
could produce hail up to golf ball sized, damaging wind gusts and
a tornado cant be ruled out. The timing of the main brunt of this
weather will last until around midnight tonight. As storms wrap up
expect isolated shower and storm chances to remain through the
overnight but will remain mostly above I-20 with best chances
above Hwy-82. Going into the morning dense patchy fog will be
possible again in the southeastern portions of the CWA as excess
moisture and light winds will make development easy and more
likely due to persistence. Going into the early morning a cold
front will be in the process of dropping into the CWA allowing
rain chances in the north to persist through the afternoon as the
boundary moves off to our east. Rain chances will continue in the
northeastern portions of the CWA through the forecast period./KP/
Saturday through Thursday: The pattern change will continue
through the weekend and into early next week as an upper-level
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico refocuses over the southwestern U.S.
and upper-level troughing becomes more prevalent over the eastern
U.S. Building surface high pressure will make its way southeast
out of the High Plains and toward the Mid- South behind a cold
front Sunday into Monday. It should bring drier air and initially
cooler weather to the Gulf Coast region. Flow aloft over our area
will be mostly zonal in the early to midweek time frame, and it`s
possible a shortwave moving north of our area and its attendant
cold front could trigger a few showers or thunderstorms as the
system glances by our region. For now, POPs are an uncertain 20
percent for next Wednesday. Temps will warm to above normal again
as the high pressure shifts eastward. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail for a majority of the
forecast period. However periods of SHRA and VCTS will impact TAF
sites this afternoon through this evening causing categories to drop
down to MVFR IFR with possible LIFR for an hour or two. Beginning
around 10Z expect another round of patchy dense fog to impact
southeastern TAF sites through 15Z as high moisture and low winds
will make it east for fog development./KP/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 66 82 64 73 / 20 20 10 50
Meridian 65 87 62 75 / 30 20 20 40
Vicksburg 66 80 61 70 / 20 20 10 50
Hattiesburg 67 87 66 83 / 10 10 10 40
Natchez 66 85 64 76 / 10 10 10 30
Greenville 65 72 56 63 / 40 20 30 70
Greenwood 66 74 57 65 / 50 30 20 60
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
KP/NF/