956
FXUS62 KJAX 101825
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 21Z. Another round of
convection is expected to develop along the Interstate 10 corridor
after 21Z, with this activity expected to push southeastward
towards the GNV and SGJ terminals during the 23Z-02Z time frame.
We included TEMPO groups at GNV and SGJ, with confidence too low
to indicate anything other than vicinity thunderstorm coverage at
this time. This convective activity is expected to remain south
of SSI. Convection will push south of the northeast FL terminals
by 04Z, followed by a brief period of MVFR ceilings around
2,000-3,000 feet and possibly a few showers in the 05Z-09Z time
frame. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals
by 10Z Saturday. Gusty westerly winds sustained at 15-25 knots
will shift to southwesterly and will subside around 10 knots
towards 00Z. Winds overnight will shift to northwesterly and then
northerly towards sunrise on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

The cold front will have essentially cleared the region by the
start of Saturday, with weak high pressure building in throughout
the day. The pressure gradient behind the front will not be
particularly strong, and therefore winds will not really increase
diurnally, and in fact may subside a bit throughout the day. The
more northerly component with the wind should allow a bit of a sea
breeze to develop, though will likely not penetrate much further
inland than the I-95/St. Johns River corridor. Otherwise, a mostly
sunny and seasonably warm day, near to slightly above 80 north and
upper 80s to near 90 south, dropping into the upper 50s to low/mid
60s Saturday Night.

Broad high pressure moves more overhead on Saturday Night and
through Sunday, which will persist fair weather and light winds to
end the weekend with just some high clouds starting to fill in
overhead. A sea breeze will develop once again with the light
winds during the afternoon, with temps topping out in the 80s
before the boundary moves across eastern areas. More cloud cover
will result in a bit milder lows Sunday Night, generally 60s to
near 70 by the coast and St. Johns River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

High pressure moves offshore Monday, with a much more unsettled
pattern looking to take shape for most of this period. A frontal
system approaches the area with a warm front passage on Monday,
followed by the trailing cold front Tuesday and into Wednesday.
The boundary looks to stall almost directly over the CWA around
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with several shortwaves moving
across the area and maintaining chances for showers and t`storms
before more of a "kicker" front approaches towards the end of the
week. Temperatures start this period near to slightly below
average with the unsettled weather, then towards near to slightly
above average by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Offshore Southwest to West flow will remain at SCEC (Small Craft
Exercise Caution) levels (15-20 knots) ahead of the cold frontal
passage Today into this evening with the main marine hazard with
strong to severe storms with damaging wind threat impacting the
waters in several waves through this evening. Winds shift to the
North at SCEC levels after midnight tonight behind the cold
frontal passage and spread across the local waters. These winds
become onshore/NE on Saturday and weaken to 10-15 knots as the
weak high pressure ridge builds over the waters for the weekend
with weak pressure gradient and No headlines expected with local
sea breezes during the afternoon hours. The old frontal boundary
lifts back to the North as a warm frontal boundary on Monday and
stalls across the local waters on Tuesday as several waves of low
pressure track along this feature. Increasing SE winds on Monday
to possible Small Craft Advisory levels will shift to South and
Southwest on Tuesday as the waves moving along the frontal
boundary with a more unsettled pattern of showers and storms at
times, with heavy rainfall and gusty wind threat at times early
next week.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents expected Today
through the weekend with surf/breakers around 2 feet, before
onshore/SE flow increases on Monday with a potential for solid
Moderate to High Risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  79  64  83 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  65  84  61  85 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  68  83  64  85 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  66  87  60  87 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  68  89  62  88 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$