Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241856
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
256 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

It is an absolutely beautiful afternoon across the Florida Keys!
GOES visible satellite is depicting mostly clear skies along the
island chain. Temperatures have been subdued to the 70s, and dew
points have stayed comfortable in the lower 60s. Winds have
decreased substantially due to the shadow of the Florida
peninsula, and marine observation platforms along the Reef are
measuring winds ranging from 7 to 12 knots.

A quiet few days in terms of convection is on tap for the Florida
Keys. A very dry airmass will remain in place over the next few
days, so rain chances will remain near nil through mid-week.
Winds are a different story. Today`s brief instance of lighter
winds will quickly be replaced with freshening breezes as high
pressured centered near Maine builds down the Eastern Seaboard.
This high will be caught between two low pressure systems, one
centered near Bermuda and the other over the Plains. Breezy to
occasionally windy conditions will persist through Tuesday
afternoon until the low over the Plains finally advances
northeastward across the Great Lakes region and the gradient
finally beginning to relax.

Looking ahead to Wednesday night, a frontal boundary associated
with the aforementioned Plains low will lumber across the Gulf of
Mexico and advance towards the Florida Keys. A ribbon of moisture
along the front, so rain chances will be re-introduced Thursday.
The front will move through the Keys on Thursday night, and the
environment may be very briefly favorable for thunderstorm
development. Have kept thunder in the forecast for now.
Thereafter, a blast of northwesterly winds will follow in the
wake of the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Straits of Florida for
increasing winds and seas. In all other coastal waters, a Small
Craft Advisory may be required tonight. From synopsis, gentle to
moderate northerly breezes are prevailing across the Florida Keys
coastal waters this afternoon. Breezes will ultimately shift
quickly to the northeast then east Monday and Monday night, and
slacken by Tuesday. By Thursday afternoon, winds will shift to the
northwest ahead of another approaching late season cold front and
freshen considerably.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest
of today and through tonight. Near surface winds will be out of the
north to northeast at 5 to 10 knots before freshening and becoming
easterly overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1986, the record cold high temperature of 71F and
the daily record low temperature of 51F were both recorded in
Marathon. Temperature records date back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  71  82  74  83 /  10  10   0   0
Marathon  73  82  74  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....DR

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