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000
FXUS62 KKEY 110949
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
549 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 550 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

An ongoing surge in winds is finally slackening early this
morning. Wind speeds of 20 to occasionally 25 knots has come down
to 15 to 20 knots across the Reef and Florida Bay. Meanwhile, the
southerly winds have continued to pump in moisture rich air into
the boundary layer, keeping dew points in the lower 70s. This
coupled with current temps in the mid to upper 70s is making for
muggy conditions. Despite the low level moisture, dry air remains
deeply entrenched above the boundary layer and continues to
suppress any chance of precipitation.

Meanwhile, a decaying late season cold front is slowly marching
across the Gulf of Mexico and sliding east and south. This front
is progged to move through the Florida Keys in the early evening
and overnight hours. Though this front will be weakening as it
approaches the area, there is still a small chance for an isolated
embedded thunderstorm or two. Ahead of the front we will continue
to see winds slacken as they gradually become more south to
southwest.

Behind the front, we will see winds briefly increase but the more
noticeable effects will be much lower dew points. Dew point values
of lower 60s to even briefly sub 60 is possible this weekend. High
pressure quickly moving in behind the front will clock winds
around to the north fairly quickly. As the high slides eastward
into the western Atlantic it will gradually build leading to a
period of peaks and lulls in the easterly flow early next week.
Despite the easterly regime early next week, it will take some
time for dew points to get back into the muggy range. In addition,
deep layer ridging in the western Atlantic not far off from the
Florida Peninsula will keep a fair amount of subsidence in place
therefore maintaining near nil rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 550 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

High pressure centered near Bermuda will maintain moderate to
fresh southeast breezes across the Florida Keys this morning. As
such, Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for all
waters for this morning. Breezes will then slacken through the
afternoon and veer to the south ahead of a weak front that is
progged to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters by late
tonight. In the wake of the front, breezes will shift to the
northeast to east as another high pressure system moves across the
Southeast and into the western North Atlantic. Breezes will
slacken through Sunday night then gradually freshen beginning
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A frontal passage is progged to pass through the Keys later tonight.
VFR conditions are expected at both terminals ahead of this front,
but rain and thunder chances will increase with the front`s
approach. While sub-VFR conditions may be observed with any storms
that cross the island chain this evening, uncertainty in exact
timing and location will leave mention out of both TAFs for now.
Near surface winds will be out of the southeast to south at 10 to 15
knots with frequent gusts to near 20 knots early, before slackening
and veering to the south to southwest by this afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...

On this day in 1933, the daily record high temperature of 89F was
recorded at Key West. April temperature records for Key West date
back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  85  73  80  70 /  10  20  10   0
Marathon  84  74  80  70 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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