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000
FXUS63 KLBF 240515
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A dry forecast is expected through Wednesday afternoon with
  warming temperatures into the 70s.

* The next significant rain and thunderstorm potential arrives on
  Wednesday night lasting through the weekend.

* A slight risk of severe weather is possible on Thursday night and
  into Friday with large hail, severe winds, and heavy rainfall the
  primary threats.

* Rain and embedded thunderstorms continue through the weekend,
  however, the potential for severe storms is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A quiet forecast is in store for north central Nebraska through the
majority of the short term. Outside of some low end slight chance
thunderstorm/rain shower PoPs (15 to 20 percent) across portions of
south central Nebraska due to a weak shortwave moving through
Wednesday morning, conditions remain dry and mild. As the pressure
gradient tightens during the afternoon, southerly winds will
increase as well. Expect surface wind gusts up to 25 to 30 mph as a
weak trough pushes across the region. Increasing clouds throughout
the day on Wednesday will keep temperatures in the mid 60s to low
70s. Overnight lows will remain chilly tonight dropping into the
upper 30s to low 40s, but with increased moisture and clouds by
Wednesday night, lows increase into the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Active weather will then arrive on Wednesday night bringing
significant rain chances to the region through Sunday as well as
potential severe storms on Thursday night and into Friday.

The developing low will push into the High Plains on Thursday and
will continue to deepen across Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday into
Thursday evening. Confidence continues to increase in the potential
for severe storms mainly late Thursday evening and into Friday
morning. Instability remains fairly weak across much of north
central Nebraska until after 6pm CT. During the evening, a small
nose of higher instability pushes into southwest Nebraska providing
enough support for some isolated severe storms. This ribbon of
higher instability will push north and east through Friday morning
with the severe potential moving into the Sandhills by 12Z Friday.
SPC has increased the risk of severe storms from marginal to slight
across our extreme southeast forecast area (Frontier and Hayes
counties) which seems to support the latest guidance. At this time,
large hail up to 1 inch and strong winds up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards. However, with the small area of convective support,
any storms will likely move quickly out of the area with an area of
more stratiform rain behind the initial line of severe storms.
Still, a few embedded thunderstorms are possible into Friday as the
environment continues to get worked through before the system
becomes more of a widespread heavy rain event.

Increasing rainfall totals also continue to gain confidence with
amounts increasing into the 1 inch or higher category through only
Friday. Additional rainfall is expected Friday night through Sunday
with the only break in the rainfall being a small window on Saturday
morning across southwest into south central Nebraska. Thunderstorms
will be less likely through the weekend as colder air filters in
behind the developing low and heavy rainfall becomes the main
threat. While flooding concerns are not expected at this time,
nearly 4 days of rainfall, sometimes heavy rainfall, may result in
some flooding across low-lying areas or in area fields. Be prepared
for some rises in small streams and area roadways as the ground may
struggle to keep up with the rainfall at times.

Weak upper level ridging across the central US on Monday will bring
an end to the heavy rainfall and dry weather into the first part of
next week. After falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s over the
weekend, gradual clearing of skies will allow temperatures to rise
back into the 60s on Monday and into the mid to upper 70s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
with SCT to BKN mid to high clouds through the period. Winds
remain light and variable overnight, strengthening out of the
southeast this afternoon with widespread gusts of 20 to 30 kts
expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Viken