676
FXUS64 KLCH 061142
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
642 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A warm and muggy early morning ongoing across the region although,
thankfully, with a clear radar for the first time in several days.
As expected, areas of fog have developed once again where winds
have become light or calm and it`s expansion is easily observable
on night fog satellite channels. Expect fog to continue expanding
through the morning, but widespread dense fog isn`t anticipated. Where
winds have remained generally above five knots, the mixing has
kept clouds off the surface streaming around 1.5kft. Visibilities
should improve no later than 14Z.

Winds will gradually increase through the day in response to a
deepening surface low over the central plains that will initialize
a severe weather outbreak across Oklahoma and Kansas. Forecast
winds look to remain below advisory criteria, but will be in the
15-18 knot range by this afternoon gusting to 25. A moisture plume
being advected into the central plains low will get some lift from a
weak shortwave traversing the region this afternoon to initialize
isolated to scattered convection. The highest PoPs will be across
central Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas along the
trajectory of the highest moisture. Activity should wane by about
22Z as the shortwave lifts off to the Northeast.

The central plains low will keep winds elevated enough tonight
into Tuesday morning to prevent any significant fog formation.
Drier mid level air streaming up the Texas gulf coast Tuesday
will allow for the first day in over a week that should have zero
precipitation anywhere across Southeast Texas or Southwest
Louisiana. The downside is that with the lack of rainfall,
temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday
afternoon and then into the lower 90s Wednesday across central
Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas. As has been advertised,
this will push heat indices Wednesday afternoon close to triple
digits for the first time since last fall.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Thursday will start off unseasonably warm and dry before a cold
front sags south into the area. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. This will yield heat indices at
and below the 100 degree mark. As the front works into the area, we
will see isolated to scattered showers ramp up mainly across the
northern half of the CWA.

The rest of the long term will be more mild with temperatures at or
below climatological normals. At the surface a weak ridge will build
in over the weekend. Aloft, model guidance differs this far out. We
could see isolated showers return to the forecast as early as Sunday
with a disturbance moving in over the Rockies and into the Plains.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Visibility restrictions from fog will improve over the next couple
of hours with all fog dissipated no later than 14Z. Ceilings are
expected to fluctuate between VFR and MVFR through the late
morning becoming predominantly VFR this afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of
central Louisiana potentially impacting AEX through the afternoon.
While a few thunderstorms are not out of the question in the
vicinity of the coastal terminals, probabilities are very low and
were not explicitly mentioned at this time.

Southerly winds will increase through the morning and remain
between 12-15 knots with gusts to 25 through the afternoon and
evening. Winds will remain elevated overnight which will prevent
fog redevelopment, but IFR ceilings are expected in lieu of fog
beginning around 04Z through Tuesday morning.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet
will prevail for much of the upcoming week. No precipitation is
expected over the coastal waters until Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night with the passage of a cold front. Offshore flow
will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  71  87  71 /  50  10  10   0
LCH  84  74  84  73 /  20   0   0   0
LFT  86  75  87  75 /  30   0   0   0
BPT  85  73  87  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...66