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000
FXUS65 KLKN 220940
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
240 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon breezes today along with low probability for
virga, light sprinkles, and a lightning strike or two in and near
White Pine County, mostly relegated to the higher terrain. Active
weather increases and becomes more widespread Tuesday and
Wednesday, persisting thru the weekend with higher probabilities
for rainfall and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night

Westerly flow turns southwesterly today ahead of an approaching
Pacific low as it continues to move southeast toward SoCal. This
helps to move modest mid-level moisture into central Nevada.
Subsequently combining with limited instability along a weak
boundary, will produce a low probability for virga, light
sprinkles, and a lightning strike or two in and near White Pine
County. Activity will be mostly relegated to the higher terrain
during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly
sunny skies will be present with afternoon breezes gusting to 25
mph. Quiet weather tonight as winds trend light to calm.

Similar set up and weather conditions Tuesday but with better
instability and the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will expand northward to the Idaho state line. Continued
southwesterly flow further increases mid-level moisture and PWATs
are progged to reside in the 0.50" to 0.60" range. However, any
valley accumulations likely remain less than 0.10" and the main
concerns will be occasional lightning strikes and gusty
thunderstorm outflow winds.

Daytime high temperatures today reside in the upper 60s to upper
70s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Daytime highs
Tuesday reside in the mid 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows
again in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday

An active weather pattern is on track midweek as a trough
approaches the U.S. West Coast. By Wednesday, additional Pacific
moisture will allow for more widespread showers and thunderstorms
along an axis from around northwestern Nye county into much of
northern and northeastern Nevada. With additional cloud cover and
moisture, afternoon highs expected to reach into the 60s with lows
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The larger scale troughing pattern across the western U.S. will
continue for late next week, bringing more widespread rain and
mountain snow to the area. Timing and areal coverage of
precipitation is expected to change, but ensemble guidance
suggests a busy pattern to continue into next weekend.
Temperatures cool down with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s,
with breezy conditions each afternoon. Quiet and dry conditions
for Sunday and Monday as the main trough axis exits the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the
next 24 hours. KELY will see cumulus cloud build-ups this
afternoon, with a 10-15% chance of TS, otherwise dry at all
terminals today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and
central Nevada continue to observe elevated flows. Mostly dry
conditions continue thru today with temperatures remaining warm,
which will help to accelerate the melting of mid and high
elevation snowpack. Valley and mid elevation rain forecast
beginning Tuesday as an active weather pattern takes hold. Cooler
temperatures are also expected the second half of the week,
likely slowing high elevation snow melt.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, and will likely
rise further in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast
to reach minor flood stage in the Wednesday timeframe.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood
stage and expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river
is forecast to remain in minor flood stage over the next several
days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the next
several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in action
stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/90/96