380
FXUS66 KLOX 032118
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
218 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...03/153 PM.

Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through at least the
weekend as a weak storm system moves into California. Some light
precipitation is expected Saturday afternoon into very early
Sunday along with some gusty winds at times, mainly interior
areas. A warming and drying trend will develop next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...03/208 PM.

A late season storm is approaching California today and we`re
already feeling the effects of it in the form of a deeper and slow
clearing marine layer as well as much cooler temperatures. Models
have been quite consistent the last several runs indicating high
chances for rain north of Pt Conception starting Saturday
afternoon. The trajectory of the storm and the primarily westerly
low level flow isn`t as favorable a pattern for southern areas in
terms of rain but most areas should see at least some sprinkles or
light showers Saturday night. Ensembles continue to project around
a quarter inch northern areas, tapering down to a tenth or less in
the south. Most of the precip will be done before sunrise Sunday,
so most of Sunday will be dry with plenty of sunshine but still
cooler than normal with some breezy and conditions, especially
near the coast and in the mountains.

Monday will be much warmer as the storm moves into the Plains and
onshore flow weakens.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...03/217 PM.

The remainder of next week is expected to be fairly quiet with
a slow warming trend, mainly inland as California sits between a
low pressure system over the Great Basin and high pressure over
the eastern Pacific. Coastal area temperatures will be near normal
with possibly some increasing marine layer stratus by around mid
week. There is potential for more significant warming (again
mainly inland) next Friday into next weekend if the ridge over
the eastern Pacific shifts east into California as some models are
showing.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1649Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3300 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4300 feet with a temperature of 13 degrees
Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40%
chance that MVFR CIGs could remain at KSBA and KLAX through the
afternoon. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG/VSBY
restrictions for all coastal and valley sites, but moderate
confidence in timing of return and flight category changes.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance that
MVFR CIGs will not dissipate this afternoon. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. THere is a 20-30% chance
that MVFR CIGs do not dissipate this afternoon. For tonight, there
is a 30% chance that MVFR CIGs could arrive as early as 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...03/1238 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. For tonight, there is a 50-70% chance of Gale force
winds with the highest chances across PZZ670/673 and GALE WARNINGS
remain in effect. For Saturday through Wednesday, high confidence
in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas
with a 40-60% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Monday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday, there
is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds with the strongest winds
during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, there is a
30-40% chance of Gale force winds Sunday and Monday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Saturday night through Sunday night, high confidence in
combination of SCA level winds and seas with a 30-40% chance of
Gale force winds Sunday and Sunday night, especially across
western sections. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 50-60%
chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel with high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels elsewhere.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox