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000
FNUS71 KLWX 191037
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Mills RX...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
637 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Low ceilings may spill over the Blue Ridge this morning with
poor smoke dispersion expected. Chances for showers will increase
this afternoon and evening as low pressure tracks well to the north,
although rain amounts will likely be less than one quarter inch,
with a possibility of no rain at all. There is a slight chance
of a thunderstorm as well.

A cold front will move through late tonight into Saturday morning,
ushering in gusty WNW winds with some gusts in the 20-30 mph
range on Saturday. Minimum RH values will be near or below 30
percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the afternoon. Isolated
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 5 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    possible near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (14200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  85  79  85  92  92  88  88  86  85
Weather cov.....                    SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                    ISO
CWR.............0   10  10  10  10  30  40  50  40  40
Temp............55  56  58  59  61  62  64  64  66  66
RH..............86  83  77  78  72  72  67  70  65  65
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.12  13  13  12  12  12  12  13  13  13
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   5   5   5   4   4   4   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.7   8   8   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  12  10  9   8   7   7   7
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   8   11  14  13  11  10  8   8   8
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then isolated rain showers overnight.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 20 percent late
                    in the evening decreasing to 10 percent
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 4 mph overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 8 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 6 to 7 mph overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds possible near thunderstorms in
                    the early evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 6 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........87     75     71     70     64     66
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD        ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............40     30     20     10     20     10
Temp............67     64     62     60     57     54
RH..............63     73     75     81     86     90
20 ft wind......S 8    S 7    SW 6   W 6    NW 7   N 7
20 ft wind gust.12     12     9      9      9      10
Eye level wind..S 5    S 4    SW 4   W 4    NW 4   N 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.7      7      5      5      5      6
Transport wind..S 7    S 7    S 6    SW 6   SW 6   NW 5
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7      4      2      2      2      1
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 7 mph shifting to the
                    west 7 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 7 mph shifting to the west
                    12 to 14 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 16 mph shifting to the west 18
                    to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (104300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........62     53     42     39     42     35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     0      0      0
Temp............54     54     58     62     66     67
RH..............80     71     57     43     32     29
20 ft wind......N 7    N 8    NW 9   NW 12  W 13   W 14
20 ft wind gust.10     13     15     17     20     22
Eye level wind..N 4    N 5    NW 5   NW 7   W 8    W 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.6      8      9      10     12     13
Transport wind..NW 8   NW 12  NW 9   W 10   W 16   W 20
Haines index....3      3      4      4      5      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5      19     26     41     77     104
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   VYGD

$$
Forecaster...Snyder
Requested by...Christopher Schultz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411298.1/LWX
.DELDT 04/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Christopher.schultz@usda.gov