393
FXUS64 KLZK 141105 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Winds have relaxed early this Tue morning...and some patchy fog was
beginning to develop where winds remain lightest...and sky mostly
clear. Some lingering SHRA were also noted across the far ERN and
SERN sections early this Tue morning. Expect chances for precip to
gradually shift east this morning...with most areas becoming dry by
after sunrise. Expect the patchy fog to continue...and for some low
CIGs to develop/continue early this morning before conditions
improve some time after sunrise.

An upper level closed low to the north over MO early this morning
will rotate ESE by this afternoon/evening. Chances for convection
will increase by late this morning and mainly for this afternoon
across the NERN third/half of the state near this upper low. Areas
further SW should remain mainly dry.

This closed upper low will move east away from the region by late
tonight and for Wed...with mainly dry conditions expected as upper
level ridging moves overhead. Chances for convection return to the
forecast late in the short term however as the ridging shifts
east...and an upper disturbance approaches from the west. These
chances for convection will be limited to NWRN sections late Wed
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Active weather looks to return to the forecast at the start of the
period in what looks to be a similar setup to what has been in place
over the region the past few days. Mid-level ridging will briefly be
in place over the state at the start of the period before giving way
to SW flow in advance of an eastward moving trough. A warm front in
place well south of the state will lift north toward the AR/LA
border late Thu into Fri.

Temperatures are expected to be quite warm on Thursday with rain
chances slowly moving in from the west. Main window for rain and
thunderstorms looks to occur on Friday as a cold front approaches
from the west while the H500 trough progresses east across the
state. Main severe weather and heavy rainfall threat looks to remain
just south of the state at this time, likely tied to areas focused
along and south of the warm front.

Precip should exit to the east on Saturday with mid-level ridging
building over the area. Anomalously high H500 heights persist in the
14/00z data which will contribute to well above normal temperatures
for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Highs approaching 90
F appear likely late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Some low CIGs and patchy fog were noted during the overnight
period...with the sites impacted seeing some improvements this
morning. Some scattered SHRA were noted across SERN
sections...which may get near the SERN terminals this morning.
This activity should move out of the area by later this morning.
Additional convection will be possible by late morning and
especially this afternoon across the NERN half of the
area...impacting mainly the NRN terminals. Expect mainly dry
conditions overnight into Wed morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  60  82  62 /  50  20   0  10
Camden AR         82  58  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       71  56  80  61 /  40  10   0  20
Hot Springs AR    79  58  87  63 /  10  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  81  63  87  65 /  20  10   0   0
Monticello AR     83  62  87  65 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      79  57  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  72  57  80  61 /  50  20   0  20
Newport AR        76  61  81  63 /  50  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     80  61  86  64 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   78  57  85  63 /  20  10   0  10
Searcy AR         77  60  83  61 /  40  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      78  62  82  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...62