Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 261842
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
142 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Troughing continues to dominate the short term forecast period.
Scattered showers are beginning to develop early this afternoon as
very cold temperatures aloft lead to high-based instability. These
showers will struggle to have much, if any, of its precipitation
reaching the ground with a dry, sub-cloud layer but this may cause
gusty, erratic winds in places. Temperatures continue to be below
normal this afternoon with most locations topping out in the 60s
with a breezy west wind. Any showers weaken and dissipate this
evening with the loss of daytime heating and skies gradually clear
and winds weaken. This aides in another chilly morning with many
locations seeing temperatures fall to the 30s and low 40s.

The trough axis finally moves east of the region on Wednesday
allowing for our region to finally become less influenced by this
feature. Winds become northwesterly as we transition to the
backside of the trough and with subsidence returning, skies remain
mostly sunny. With the added sunshine, temperatures may be a
touch warmer with many locations climbing into the lower 70s with
the remainder mainly in the 60s, a bit below normal for this time
of year. Another chilly night is expected tomorrow as skies remain
clear and winds slacken. One can expect to wake up with
temperatures in the 30s to low 40s once again.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The warm-up is well underway by Thursday as mid-level ridging
translates eastward toward the region, with increasing subsidence
and rising heights keeping a lid on precipitation chances as well
as allowing temperatures to finally return to near or even
slightly above normal. Southerly surface flow will aid in warming,
and as a nocturnal low-level jet develops across the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos, lows will also trend upward. Highs Thursday
are progged to top out in the lower to middle 70s for most, with
80s through the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, with lows Thursday
night in the middle 40s to middle 50s. The aforementioned ridge
flattens somewhat as it progresses eastward, in response to a
series of short waves translating across the northern tier of the
CONUS. This marks a brief return to quasi-zonal flow on Friday,
and coincident with a lee surface trough to the north of the
region, westerly downslope flow will see temperatures climb into
the 80s for most locations, and a return of middle and upper 90s
along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend.

Heading into the weekend, westerly to southwesterly surface flow
continues, with flow aloft transitioning to southwesterly ahead of
a deepening trough over the West Coast. Cluster analysis and
deterministic guidance are in fairly decent agreement regarding
this trough developing a positive tilt as it translates across the
Great Basin late in the weekend to early next week, and this
somewhat slow progression maintains the southwesterly flow over
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. That said, a low-level
thermal ridge is progged to set up over the region during the
weekend, and the combination of southwesterly flow aloft and
downsloping surface flow will see temperatures soar well above
normal, likely topping out in the 80s and lower 90s for most both
Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, 90s would largely be confined to
the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, but on Sunday, lower 90s expand
slightly into the Stockton Plateau and eastern Permian Basin. Of
note, however, is ensemble guidance has started scaling back the
probabilities of temperatures >90F on Sunday afternoon,
particularly across the Permian Basin, with ensemble clusters in
fairly decent alignment with the NBM with low to medium (10-40%)
probabilities for temperatures to hit or exceed that 90 degree
threshold. This is likely due to a forecast increase in cloud
cover that would somewhat inhibit mixing as well as insolation,
keeping temperatures a bit lower than their true potential. Thus,
have not deviated from the NBM at this time, keeping upper 80s for
Midland, which could postpone our inevitable first 90 degree day
of the year.

The trough`s attendant jet noses into the region Sunday night and
Monday, resulting in an uptick in wind speeds across the area, and
particularly the higher terrain and adjacent areas to the west.
These winds will shunt the thermal ridge eastward, allowing for
slightly cooler temperatures next Monday in the 70s west to lower
80s east, and 90s along the Rio Grande (with triple digits not out
of the question at Rio Grande Village). However, the trough`s
eventual trek looks to be north of the area, which would keep
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas high and dry, with no
precipitation currently forecast through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Winds are slowly
becoming westerly with gusts early this afternoon before winds
weaken overnight. Isolated showers are possible but minimal TAF
impacts are expected but gusty, erratic winds could develop near
these showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               38  70  37  76 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 41  68  37  79 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   47  75  44  80 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            44  70  40  80 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           37  59  42  71 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    36  66  33  74 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    32  62  32  75 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     41  68  38  76 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   42  68  39  76 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                     41  71  38  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...91


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