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000
ACUS11 KWNS 160623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160622
KSZ000-OKZ000-160715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...Northern OK and southeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 160622Z - 160715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop east-northeast across
parts of northern OK into southeast KS through the pre-dawn hours.
Large hail appears to be the most likely hazard.

DISCUSSION...Elevated storms gradually deepened into north-central
OK for about an hour, but appeared to plateau over the past 15
minutes. This activity seems to be forced by lower-level warm
theta-e advection (greater mean mixing ratios sampled by the 00Z FWD
sounding relative to OUN) and mid-level height falls downstream of
the vigorous shortwave trough over southeast CO. Elevated buoyancy
and favorable southwesterly speed shear will support a threat for at
least marginally severe hail if cells can sustain mid-level
rotation.

Primary concern is whether this activity might further deepen and
acquire low-level rotation. MLCIN at present appears sufficiently
robust to likely mitigate that potential in the near-term. But with
further moistening from the south-southwest coupled with adequate
cooling around 700 mb, there is conditional potential for a storm or
two to become more surface-based in character. While the probability
of this appears low, should it occur, all hazards would be possible.

..Grams/Gleason.. 04/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36749831 37629781 37859686 37809605 37629565 37219536
            36529565 36199620 35839760 35919817 36119847 36749831