369
FXUS62 KMFL 030651
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
251 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

While models depict a rather complex weather pattern dominating the
whole E CONUS on Friday, closer to the area a mid level ridge and
sfc high pressure will remain in control of the peninsula weather
during the weekend. A transient trough and associated storm
systems well to the north will flatten a bit the ridge today, with
pressure gradients again becoming a little tighter in the
afternoon hours. Thus, expect periods of easterly winds becoming
gusty, mainly over the Atlantic coast of SoFlo.

Models also keep low dew points in place with the upstream air mass,
which will help in keeping POPs/rain chances low. The only lifting
mechanism will be again afternoon sea breezes, which will serve as
focal points for limited convection to develop. But with the
stronger easterly flow, it is likely that most of the shower/storm
activity will be pushed towards the interior/western portions of
SoFlo.

The weather pattern becomes a little more favorable for afternoon
showers on Saturday as an area of enhanced moisture moves into SoFlo
from the Atlantic side. But model layer analyses keep most of the
moisture in a shallow layer around 850-700 mb, along with highest
POPs in the 25-40 percent range, favoring the Gulf coast. Any deeper
convection should again follow the enhanced lifting of sea breeze
boundaries, although a key difference Saturday afternoon is that
overall coverage of showers seems more widespread than previous
days.

Despite the better chances of rain on Saturday, temperatures will
remain warm on both days with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s for the Atlantic coast and interior areas, and around 90 for the
west coast of SoFlo.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Long range models show mid-level ridging persisting across the
region, keeping the ongoing easterly wind regime over SoFlo through
much of the work week. Meanwhile, the remaining enhanced low level
moisture from the weekend will gradually dry out, with mainly single
digit POPs by mid week. Thus, expect better chances for a few
showers and an isolated storm or two on Sunday and Monday afternoon.
Again, deeper convection should follow the sea breeze boundaries as
the easterly flow push them inland.

Expect temperatures to remain around or slightly higher than
normals. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90
across southwest Florida and interior areas, while remaining in the
mid 80s along the east coast. Overnight lows will be in the 60s,
except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A
few showers may be possible near the east coast Friday morning but
feel probs are too low to explicitly mention in this issuance.
Generally easterly winds prevail through the period with gusts to
20kts possible during the day. KAPF will see an afternoon wind
shift to the W-SW again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Outside of periods of gusty easterly winds, overall benign
conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the
weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each
day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.
Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and
2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds could peak in the 12-15 kts
range out of the east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Breezy easterly flow will keep an elevated risk for rip currents
across all Atlantic beaches through early next week. Highest rip
current risk today will be maximized across the Palm Beach County
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  73  84  74 /  10  10  30  30
West Kendall     85  70  86  70 /  10  10  30  30
Opa-Locka        86  72  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
Homestead        84  73  84  72 /  10  10  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  83  73  83  74 /  10  20  40  40
N Ft Lauderdale  83  73  83  73 /  10  10  30  40
Pembroke Pines   87  73  87  73 /  10  10  30  30
West Palm Beach  84  71  84  71 /  10  10  30  30
Boca Raton       84  72  84  73 /  10  10  40  40
Naples           89  70  88  70 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...Rizzuto