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000
FXUS66 KMFR 211002
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
302 AM PDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.DISCUSSION...The trough that brought breezy winds and a few
showers to the area yesterday has lifted to the northeast, and
high pressure has started to nudge into the region, drying things
out foe the rest of the weekend. With the passage of the cold
front yesterday evening, a cooler airmass will be in place, and
therefore temperatures today will trend about 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than yesterday.

Temperatures warm again on Monday as upper level ridging arrives.
Meanwhile a thermal trough develops along the coast Monday, then
moves inland on Tuesday, keeping interior locations warm and dry
for those two days. These dry and warm conditions will be short
lived however, as the next upper level trough approaches the area
late Tuesday. As the trough nears and upper level temperatures
cool, southerly flow ahead of second trough to the southwest will
result in increased moisture. These factors will combine to
produce increased instability across northern California and along
and east of the Oregon Cascades, resulting in showers and a 15 to
20 percent chance for a thunderstorm. Other areas will remain
dry, with widespread breezy afternoon winds.

The upper level trough will finally swing onshore and over the
area Thursday, then will be reinforced by another trough,
deepening and digging in along the West Coast through the rest of
the week. This will reintroduce a cool and showery pattern to the
area, with most, if not all, of the area seeing a very good chance
of rain at some point before the end of the forecast term. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z TAFs...Overall, conditions will be VFR through
Sunday evening, though patchy MVFR ceilings could impact the Umpqua
Basin with areas of higher terrain obscured near and west of the
Cascades through Sunday morning. Gusty north winds will develop
along the coast (up to 30 kt) and in the Umpqua Basin (around 20 kt)
Sunday afternoon, then subside Sunday evening. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 145 AM Saturday, April 21, 2024...High pressure
will build in and remain just offshore today with a thermal trough
developing along the south coast. North winds increase across the
waters early today with moderate to strong winds, reaching gale
force south of Cape Blanco Sunday afternoon into Monday evening;
this is also the same time period when these winds will expand north
of Cape Blanco widening the footprint where steep to very steep wind-
driven seas exist across the waters.

Conditions are likely to improve Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of
the next cold front on Wednesday night into Thursday.
-Spilde/Miles

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11
     PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Monday for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$