775
FXUS62 KMHX 100657
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
257 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area late today and tonight,
followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will
come through around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Latest analysis shows weak sfc low and
attendant fronts draped through the Mid-Atlantic and back
through the Gulf States, as potent MCS continues to push through
southern MS/AL early this morning.

Sfc low will continue to strengthen to the north today as cold
front approaches eastern NC. The environment seems to be more
favorable for convection this afternoon and evening, with
potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded the southern portions of the
area to a Slight Risk of svr wx this afternoon and evening.
Unlike the last few days, CAMs are in pretty good agreement with
the timing and placement of convection, showing scattered to
numerous showers and storms developing after 18z, with best
coverage across the southern half of the forecast area. Stronger
forcing expected today with shortwave trough moving through,
sfc cold front and the seabreeze. Despite the marginal
instability (ML CAPEs 500-1000 J/kg), strong deep layer shear
40-50 kt, and mid level lapse rates 6.5-7 C/km, will support
the threat for organized storms...with primary threats of
damaging winds and hail. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will
also be possible, which most of the area could certainly use.
Timing of stronger storms looks to be be between 3-10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Svr threat will likely linger through late
evening, with ongoing convection ahead of the cold front. Front
will push offshore by midnight, taking convection with it and
low level northerly flow developing. Drier and cooler air
moving in behind the front late tonight, with dewpoints and lows
falling into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As 3 PM Thu...Drier and cooler weather forecast for this
weekend as high pressure ridging builds in from the south and
west. More unsettled weather then approaches ENC on Tue/Wed.

Sat and Sun...Cold front will have pushed offshore by morning
with blustery nrly winds in it`s wake in the morning. Upper
troughing remains over the eastern CONUS this weekend while a
cutoff upper low over the Four Corners region begins to push
E`wards towards the Plains. Yet another shortwave will round the
base of this troughing on Saturday before ridging finally
begins to build in from the west on Sun. At the surface low
pressure with attendant fronts will be diving SE`wards across
the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before
moving offshore on Sun and pulling away from the region while
high pressure ridge will gradually build in from the south and
west. Capped precip to mostly around 10% with dry downsloping
nwrly flow. Cloud cover should mainly be over the coastal
locales, esp OBX, but may be some bkn diurnal strato cu all
areas with the cold air aloft. Highs only getting into the 70s
each day while lows dip down into the 50s each night.

Mon through mid week next week...Upper ridging finally builds
over the Eastern Seaboard and quickly pushes offshore by Tue as
previously mentioned cutoff low opens into a trough and tracks
E`wards towards the Mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed. Associated
shortwave also quickly pushes E`wards bringing our next threat
for unsettled weather to the area around Tue/Wed. As s/w makes
its way E`wards surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains
with low pressure and its associated fronts quickly approach the
Carolinas from the south and west Tue. There remains
considerable differences in the exact timing and location of
this low next week but it is looking like this will bring our
next threat for measurable precip Tue into Wed. Went below NBM
guide due to these differences and capped pops at 50% for now.
Temps remain about avg across the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Fri...VFR currently across the terminals early this
morning. Patchy shallow fog possible through sunrise this
morning, with best chances at OAJ. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, with best
chances at OAJ and EWN, which could lead to periods of sub-VFR.
Some stronger storms have the potential to produce damaging
winds, hail and locally heavy rain. Precip will push east of the
terminals by late this evening, with potential for low stratus
advecting in overnight behind the cold front. Right now it looks
like stratus may stay E of the terminals.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Thu...As we get into the weekend and beyond
expecting primarily VFR conditions into the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt and seas 3-5
ft. Moderate to breezy SW-W winds 10-20 kt will continue today
with seas 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft across the outer central and
southern waters. A cold front will push into the waters late
afternoon and evening, then offshore tonight. Stronger
northerly surge 20-25 kt expected behind the front tonight with
seas building to 4-7 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. Went ahead
with SCAs for the sounds, coastal waters and Neuse/Bay Rvrs.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to
impact the waters this afternoon and evening. Some storms could
be strong to severe with strong winds, hail and frequent
lightning.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 325 AM Thu...More benign weather then forecast this
weekend into early next week.

At the start of the period widespread 10-15 kt W-SW`rly winds with
gusts up around 20 kts will persist across all our waters while 3-5
ft seas will be noted along the coastal waters. As we get into the
afternoon and evening, cold front will have pushed offshore but
a wave of low pressure will have developed along this front and
have begun deepening. This will allow winds to shift from a
W-SW direction to a N-NE direction Fri afternoon and evening
from N-S with winds increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up around
25-30 kts Fri night. In response to the increased winds, seas
will build primarily north of Ocracoke to 4-6 ft once again
promoting a brief period of SCA conditions across our waters.
N`rly winds will quickly ease on Sat down to 5-10 kts with seas
along our coastal waters returning to 3-5 ft and eventually 2-4
ft Sat aftn as the front and deepening low pull further away
from our waters. More benign boating conditions are then
forecast as winds generally remain at 5-15 kts and seas at 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF